Arda Kardzhali
vs
Botev Vratsa
First League prediction
The model makes it 90% Arda Kardzhali, 7% draw, 3% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 1.11, 14.29 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Arda Kardzhali 3.92, Botev Vratsa 0.74.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Arda Kardzhali
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194831 July 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia24 July 2026
- D1-1away to Septemvri Sofia18 July 2026
Botev Vratsa
- L0-5away to CSKA Sofia16 August 2026
- L0-3Slavia Sofia10 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ludogorets2 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194825 July 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Botev Vratsa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Arda Kardzhali carry a model rating of 6.53 against 5.85 for Botev Vratsa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Arda Kardzhali D-W-L-W; Botev Vratsa D-L-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.92 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 0.74 for Botev Vratsa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arda Kardzhali rate 0.66 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botev Vratsa rate 0.42 and 3.14.
That points to 84% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (10%), 4-0 (9%), 5-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arda Kardzhali the highest probability at 90%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.92 expected goals for Arda Kardzhali against 0.74 for Botev Vratsa. Arda Kardzhali's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/3.14 for Botev Vratsa.