31 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa First League prediction & result

Arena Arda, Kardzhali
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Arda Kardzhali 2-0 Botev Vratsa.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Arda Kardzhali, 27% draw, 21% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Arda Kardzhali at 52% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arda Kardzhali99%Draw1%Botev Vratsa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

57'
Ivan Goranov
58'
🔁M. Petkovout: D. Genov
59'
Martin Smolenski
⚽D. Yankovassist: V. Popov
60'
70'
🔁A. Kichukovout: R. Tsonev
70'
🔁M. Smolenskiout: A. Buchkov
🔁D. Yankovout: D. Idowu
71'
🔁P. Bachevout: G. Nikolov
71'
71'
🔁J. Gallegosout: V. Naydenov
75'
Preslav Borukov
79'
🔁K. Hadjiout: F. Gigov
🔁S. Ivanovout: A. Vutov
81'
82'
Aleksandar Buchkov
⚽A. Vutov (pen)
85'
🔁S. Kovachevout: M. Paskalev
86'
🔁B. Karagarenout: S. Vasilev
87'

Line-ups

Arda Kardzhali 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. GospodinovG
  • 21V. VelevD
  • 44A. TraoreD
  • 5V. LyubenovD
  • 6V. PopovD
  • 80L. KotevM
  • 10S. KovachevM
  • 91S. IvanovM
  • 8D. YankovM
  • 99B. KaragarenM
  • 16P. BachevF
Substitutes
  • 4D. IdowuM
  • 9G. Nikolov
  • 11A. KabovM
  • 18S. VasilevD
  • 22Y. GeorgievG
  • 24M. PaskalevD
  • 26B. AkandzhaM
  • 35D. Velkovski
  • 39A. Vutov
Coach: Blagov Tunchev Aleksander
Botev Vratsa 4-2-3-1
  • 98L. VasilevG
  • 81K. HadjiM
  • 36M. StoevD
  • 4I. GoranovD
  • 3S. SanyangD
  • 6A. KichukovM
  • 12I. YurukovM
  • 10J. GallegosM
  • 24M. SmolenskiM
  • 79M. PetkovF
  • 99P. BorukovF
Substitutes
  • 7R. TsonevM
  • 9D. GenovM
  • 11M. AchkovD
  • 17S. MechevF
  • 21M. DimitrovD
  • 23L. Stoyanov
  • 25A. BuchkovD
  • 88L. BoyanovD
  • 90F. GigovF
Coach: Todor Simov

Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa

Arda Kardzhali

  • W1-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv24 August 2026

Botev Vratsa

  • W1-0Botev Plovdiv24 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Arda Kardzhali105231512+317
9Botev Vratsa10235919-109

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa

  • 10 July 2026Botev Vratsa 1–0 Arda KardzhaliFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 March 2026Botev Vratsa 1–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 11 February 2026Botev Vratsa 2–3 Arda KardzhaliCup
  • 28 September 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–2 Botev VratsaFirst League
  • 19 April 2025Botev Vratsa 3–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 8 November 2024Arda Kardzhali 2–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.