Aberdeen
vs
Rangers
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 45% Aberdeen, 21% draw, 34% Rangers — fair odds of 2.22, 4.76 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Aberdeen 2.19, Rangers 1.91.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Aberdeen
- L0-2away to Dundee8 August 2026
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian1 August 2026
Rangers
- L1-2Hibernian9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee United31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Aberdeen
No league goals recorded yet.
Rangers
- T. Aasgaard1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aberdeen carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.31 for Rangers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Aberdeen W-L; Rangers D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for Aberdeen and 1.91 for Rangers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aberdeen rate 0.58 in attack and 2.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rangers rate 0.66 and 2.00.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aberdeen the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Aberdeen against 1.91 for Rangers. Aberdeen's attack/defence rating is 0.58/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/2 for Rangers.