Santos Laguna
vs
Tigres UANL
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 57% Santos Laguna, 22% draw, 21% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Santos Laguna 2.04, Tigres UANL 1.19.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Santos Laguna
- L0-3away to Club America2 August 2026
- L0-1Atlas26 July 2026
- L2-3away to Monterrey19 July 2026
Tigres UANL
- L1-2away to Atlas16 August 2026
- L2-3away to Club Queretaro1 August 2026
- D2-2Atletico San Luis26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Club Tijuana17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Santos Laguna carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.59 for Tigres UANL. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Santos Laguna L-L-L; Tigres UANL L-D-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for Santos Laguna and 1.19 for Tigres UANL. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santos Laguna rate 0.85 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tigres UANL rate 0.75 and 1.27.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tigres UANL, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santos Laguna the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Santos Laguna against 1.19 for Tigres UANL. Santos Laguna's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.27 for Tigres UANL.