Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Santos Laguna 0-0 Tigres UANL.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Santos Laguna, 28% draw, 35% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos Laguna at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 18F. PardoD
- 25F. SanchezD
- 14E. OronaD
- 3M. CuevasM
- 77K. PalaciosM
- 5A. LopezM
- 7D. GonzalezM
- 21F. VillalbaF
- 10E. BullaudeF
- 26R. SordoF
- 33H. HolguinG
- 4J. AbellaD
- 17E. EcheverriaD
- 28J. PerezD
- 8S. Mariscal MurraM
- 6J. GuemezM
- 15J. ManchaM
- 193L. GomezM
- 19E. AguirreF
- 1N. GuzmanG
- 14J. Garza
- 28JoaquimD
- 15A. FrancoD
- 32V. LoronaD
- 8F. GorriaranM
- 23RomuloM
- 16D. LainezM
- 11J. BrunettaM
- 30D. A. Sanchez GuevaraM
- 17R. AguirreF
- 25F. RodriguezG
- 2F. ReyesD
- 33R. GuerreroD
- 26F. I. Ordonez DelgadoD
- 200D. RamirezD
- 192E. J. Villavicencio AvilaM
- 198I. GalvanM
- 34SimeoneM
- 19M. LainezF
Form going into Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL
Santos Laguna
- L2-3away to Puebla23 August 2026
- L0-1Guadalajara Chivas17 August 2026
- L0-3away to Club America2 August 2026
- L0-1Atlas26 July 2026
- L2-3away to Monterrey19 July 2026
Tigres UANL
- W2-0Atlante FC22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlas16 August 2026
- L2-3away to Club Queretaro1 August 2026
- D2-2Atletico San Luis26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Club Tijuana17 July 2026
What these results say
- Santos Laguna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tigres UANL scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tigres UANL failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tigres UANL conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL
- 7 February 2026Tigres UANL 5–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 31 August 2025Santos Laguna 0–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 15 March 2025Tigres UANL 3–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 21 July 2024Santos Laguna 0–3 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 11 February 2024Santos Laguna 0–3 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 31 August 2023Tigres UANL 3–2 Santos LagunaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and Tigres UANL
Santos Laguna
- E. Bullaude3 goals1 assist
Tigres UANL
- J. Brunetta4 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.