Feyenoord
vs
ADO Den Haag
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 81% Feyenoord, 12% draw, 7% ADO Den Haag — fair odds of 1.23, 8.33 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Feyenoord 3.14, ADO Den Haag 0.89.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Feyenoord
- W1-0away to Sparta Rotterdam9 August 2026
ADO Den Haag
- L0-2away to AZ Alkmaar8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs ADO Den Haag
- 1 August 2021Feyenoord 1–1 ADO Den HaagFriendlies Clubs
- 2 May 2021ADO Den Haag 3–2 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 27 September 2020Feyenoord 4–2 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 15 September 2019Feyenoord 3–2 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 12 May 2019Feyenoord 0–2 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
The two sides
Feyenoord carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.41 for ADO Den Haag. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Feyenoord W; ADO Den Haag L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.14 goals for Feyenoord and 0.89 for ADO Den Haag. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Feyenoord rate 0.99 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ADO Den Haag rate 0.69 and 1.68.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (9%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Feyenoord the highest probability at 81%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.14 expected goals for Feyenoord against 0.89 for ADO Den Haag. Feyenoord's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.68 for ADO Den Haag.