Spartak Varna
vs
Ludogorets
First League prediction
The model makes it 50% Spartak Varna, 30% draw, 20% Ludogorets — fair odds of 2.00, 3.33 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Spartak Varna 1.29, Ludogorets 0.71.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Spartak Varna
- L2-3away to Botev Plovdiv10 August 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv3 August 2026
- W3-0away to Cherno More Varna26 July 2026
- D2-2CSKA 194817 July 2026
Ludogorets
- W2-0Botev Plovdiv15 August 2026
- W3-2away to Cherno More Varna9 August 2026
- W2-1Botev Vratsa2 August 2026
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse27 July 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spartak Varna | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 1 | Ludogorets | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Spartak Varna carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.56 for Ludogorets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Spartak Varna D-W-W-L; Ludogorets W-W-W-W-W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Spartak Varna and 0.71 for Ludogorets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Varna rate 0.69 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ludogorets rate 0.48 and 0.99.
That points to 32% for over two and a half goals and 38% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (17%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ludogorets, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Varna the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Spartak Varna against 0.71 for Ludogorets. Spartak Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/0.99 for Ludogorets.