Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets First League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Varna 1-1 Ludogorets.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Spartak Varna, 29% draw, 35% Ludogorets — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Varna at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 23P. IlievG
- 76D. ValverdeM
- 44A. GranchovD
- 19S. MajorM
- 45J. TshitokuD
- 4B. IvanovD
- 77A. IvanovF
- 6R. SousaM
- 10Jota LopesM
- 11B. HanneF
- 70A. AhmedovF
- 1P. VictorG
- 3M. Juric-PetrasiloD
- 7Bua
- 9T. ChunchukovF
- 20D. Lozev
- 17T. MarinovM
- 80A. GomesF
- 82T. SilvaM
- 99G. TrifonovF
- 39H. BonmannG
- 2J. AnderssonD
- 4H. AbdelmaguidD
- 3A. NedyalkovD
- 42S. ShishkovD
- 14P. StanicM
- 11Caio VidalM
- 18I. ChochevM
- 23D. DuarteM
- 20A. CamaraM
- 9K. DuahF
- 1S. PadtG
- 15E. KurtulusD
- 7A. Salido TajeroF
- 17SonD
- 22M. PolendakovD
- 26F. KalocM
- 29E. Bile
- 40A. MarinovM
- 67A. Panayotov
Form going into Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets
Spartak Varna
- L0-6away to Levski Sofia22 August 2026
Ludogorets
- D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
- W2-0Botev Plovdiv15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets
- 19 March 2026Spartak Varna 1–5 LudogoretsFirst League
- 18 October 2025Ludogorets 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 19 April 2025Ludogorets 2–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 10 November 2024Spartak Varna 1–3 LudogoretsFirst League
- 4 April 2023Ludogorets 2–1 Spartak VarnaCup
- 11 February 2023Spartak Varna 1–2 LudogoretsFirst League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.