Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Dunav Ruse 2-2 Lokomotiv Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Dunav Ruse, 26% draw, 33% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunav Ruse at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 33G. KitanovG
- 4J. C. Cabarcas PerezD
- 5K. AntoniouM
- 22S. PredevD
- 2M. DilchovskiD
- 14R. ApostolovM
- 44V. VidakovicM
- 24S. GavrilovM
- 88D. Todorov
- 18I. KeitaF
- 9A. ValinoF
- 6S. YovkovD
- 11D. MinchevF
- 19S. StefanovM
- 39A. AlvesD
- 51I. BudinovD
- 69P. PepelyashevG
- 77A. SimeonovF
- 78E. Sou
- 24A. LyubenovG
- 22R. DaskalovD
- 3K. KostovD
- 6EiroD
- 14A. LyaskovD
- 26K. MiloshevM
- 31K. StanoevM
- 77Caue Caruzo
- 20D. KostadinovM
- 7S. DelevM
- 9G. MinchevF
- 5E. DostM
- 16M. MedfaiM
- 17M. PapazovM
- 19M. MitkovD
- 29A. Aralica
- 42N. NeychevD
- 44B. KatsarovD
- 71N. PenevM
- 99M. VelichkovG
Form going into Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Dunav Ruse
- L1-3away to Cherno More Varna21 August 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
- L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv20 July 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.