Dunav Ruse
vs
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League prediction
The model makes it 35% Dunav Ruse, 18% draw, 47% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 2.86, 5.56 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-3.
Expected goals: Dunav Ruse 2.56, Lokomotiv Sofia 2.94.
Both teams to score: 87%. Over 2.5 goals: 91%, under 2.5: 9%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dunav Ruse
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv16 August 2026
- L0-2Arda Kardzhali8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA Sofia2 August 2026
- L0-2Ludogorets27 July 2026
- L1-2away to Levski Sofia17 July 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Dunav Ruse carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.55 for Lokomotiv Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dunav Ruse L-L-L-L-W; Lokomotiv Sofia D-L-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.56 goals for Dunav Ruse and 2.94 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunav Ruse rate 0.76 in attack and 2.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.92 and 1.78.
That points to 91% for over two and a half goals and 87% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (6%), 2-3 (6%), 3-2 (5%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dunav Ruse, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv Sofia the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Dunav Ruse against 2.94 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Dunav Ruse's attack/defence rating is 0.76/2.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.78 for Lokomotiv Sofia.