Botev Vratsa
vs
Levski Sofia
First League prediction & result
Final score: Botev Vratsa 0-0 Levski Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Botev Vratsa, 29% draw, 47% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Botev Vratsa 0.82, Levski Sofia 1.59.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Botev Vratsa vs Levski Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botev Vratsa vs Levski Sofia
Line-ups
- 94M. OrlinovG
- 3S. SanyangD
- 4I. GoranovF
- 36M. StoevD
- 25A. BuchkovD
- 8A. StoyanovM
- 12I. YurukovM
- 24M. SmolenskiM
- 7R. TsonevM
- 97V. NaydenovF
- 79M. PetkovF
- 98L. VasilevG
- 17S. MechevF
- 6A. KichukovM
- 81K. HadjiM
- 90F. GigovF
- 9D. GenovD
- 10J. GallegosM
- 21M. DimitrovD
- 88L. BoyanovD
- 92S. VutsovG
- 2Hevertton SantosD
- 18G. TrdinM
- 4C. MakounD
- 20Álex CentellesD
- 19E. El MoubarikM
- 35SerginhoM
- 22M. SoulaM
- 10A. MitkovM
- 7ReinaldoF
- 9J. PereaF
- 8M. GrujićM
- 13O. VladimirovG
- 55P. HristovD
- 27David KussoF
- 3MaiconF
- 21AldairD
- 11A. Oko-FlexF
- 16A. RaychevF
- 12M. SangaréF
Form going into Botev Vratsa vs Levski Sofia
Botev Vratsa
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia4 September 2026
- L0-2away to Arda Kardzhali31 August 2026
- W1-0Botev Plovdiv24 August 2026
- L0-5away to CSKA Sofia16 August 2026
Levski Sofia
- W1-0CSKA 19485 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botev Plovdiv30 August 2026
- W6-0Spartak Varna22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs Levski Sofia
- 13 September 2026Botev Vratsa 0–0 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 27 June 2026Levski Sofia 1–1 Botev VratsaFriendlies Clubs
- 7 February 2026Levski Sofia 3–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 17 August 2025Botev Vratsa 0–0 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 30 November 2024Botev Vratsa 0–2 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 7 September 2024Levski Sofia 3–2 Botev VratsaFriendlies Clubs
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Botev Vratsa carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.62 for Levski Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.82 goals for Botev Vratsa and 1.59 for Levski Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botev Vratsa rate 0.41 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levski Sofia rate 0.78 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Botev Vratsa a 0% chance of the title and Levski Sofia 69.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Botev Vratsa against 1.59 for Levski Sofia. Botev Vratsa's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.23 for Levski Sofia.