Botev Plovdiv
vs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
First League prediction & result
Final score: Botev Plovdiv 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Botev Plovdiv, 26% draw, 20% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Botev Plovdiv 2.15, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.90.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Plovdiv at 54% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Line-ups
- 29D. NaumovG
- 27B. HeinD
- 4N. SoldoD
- 87S. PetrovD
- 82V. MendesD
- 77Lucas AraújoM
- 10A. ChandarovM
- 90S. KaluF
- 19Mauro RodriguesF
- 66C. MeottiF
- 13S. TsonovM
- 14Carlos AlgarraM
- 16V. VidolovM
- 20T. AwanyD
- 88W. ChimezieF
- 28Henrique JocúM
- 15B. KostovD
- 30Franklin MascoteF
- 17G. MilanovM
- 7Alberto SalidoM
- 1B. MilosavljevicG
- 2Adrián CovaD
- 44M. PetrovićD
- 13Lucas RyanD
- 5T. PavlovM
- 22I. IvanovD
- 12E. AliD
- 11R. LeijtenM
- 39P. UmarbayevM
- 7Sevi IdrizM
- 29Christ LongvilleF
- 40P. ZovkoG
- 9A. VelevF
- 6M. TrdanM
- 99J. LamyF
- 26D. Kirashki
- 10J. IlievM
- 17A. FaseF
- 4A. ChindrişD
- 19junior burbanF
Form going into Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
- W3-2away to Arda Kardzhali4 September 2026
- L1-3Levski Sofia30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Vratsa24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Ludogorets15 August 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- W1-0Cherno More Varna6 September 2026
- L0-2away to CSKA 194828 August 2026
- L0-1Arda Kardzhali24 August 2026
- L1-2Dunav Ruse16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 13 September 2026Botev Plovdiv 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 25 May 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 3 May 2026Botev Plovdiv 0–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 8 April 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 12 February 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Botev PlovdivCup
- 1 November 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–4 Botev PlovdivFirst League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.15 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 0.90 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Asen Chandarov 9' (Botev Plovdiv), Mauro Rodrigues 44' (Botev Plovdiv).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botev Plovdiv the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Botev Plovdiv against 0.9 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Botev Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.74 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.