13 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv First League prediction & result

Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Botev Plovdiv 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Botev Plovdiv, 26% draw, 20% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Botev Plovdiv at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Botev Plovdiv99%Draw1%Lokomotiv Plovdiv0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Asen Chandarovassist: Carlos Meotti
9'
⚽Mauro Rodriguesassist: Samuel Kalu
44'
46'
🔁Christ Longvilleout: junior burban
46'
🔁sevi idrizout: Julian Iliev
51'
🔁Todor Pavlovout: ali dalil
53'
Adrián Cova
56'
Efe Ali
samuil tsonov
56'
Bryan Hein
61'
🔁samuil tsonovout: mascote
63'
🔁Carlos Meottiout: alberto tajero saido
63'
Asen Chandarov
69'
70'
🔁Efe Aliout: Anton Fase
77'
🔁Ryan Leijtenout: aleksandar aleksandrov
🔁Mauro Rodriguesout: Georgi Milanov
81'
🔁Samuel Kaluout: williams chimezie
90+2'

Match stats — Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

38%Possession62%
6Shots7
5On target3
2Corners7

Line-ups

Botev Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 29D. NaumovG
  • 27B. HeinD
  • 4N. SoldoD
  • 87S. PetrovD
  • 82V. MendesD
  • 77Lucas AraújoM
  • 10A. ChandarovM
  • 90S. KaluF
  • 19Mauro RodriguesF
  • 66C. MeottiF
  • 13S. TsonovM
Substitutes
  • 14Carlos AlgarraM
  • 16V. VidolovM
  • 20T. AwanyD
  • 88W. ChimezieF
  • 28Henrique JocúM
  • 15B. KostovD
  • 30Franklin MascoteF
  • 17G. MilanovM
  • 7Alberto SalidoM
Coach: S. Genchev
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. MilosavljevicG
  • 2Adrián CovaD
  • 44M. PetrovićD
  • 13Lucas RyanD
  • 5T. PavlovM
  • 22I. IvanovD
  • 12E. AliD
  • 11R. LeijtenM
  • 39P. UmarbayevM
  • 7Sevi IdrizM
  • 29Christ LongvilleF
Substitutes
  • 40P. ZovkoG
  • 9A. VelevF
  • 6M. TrdanM
  • 99J. LamyF
  • 26D. Kirashki
  • 10J. IlievM
  • 17A. FaseF
  • 4A. ChindrişD
  • 19junior burbanF
Coach: D. Kosič

Form going into Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv

First League

  • W3-2away to Arda Kardzhali4 September 2026

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

First League

  • W1-0Cherno More Varna6 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Botev Plovdiv126151718-119
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv12237614-89

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

  • 25 May 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 3 May 2026Botev Plovdiv 0–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 8 April 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 12 February 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Botev PlovdivCup
  • 1 November 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–4 Botev PlovdivFirst League

Leading scorers: Botev Plovdiv and Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv

GoalsAssists

  • C. Meotti10

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

No player in First League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Botev Plovdiv beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Botev Plovdiv at 54%. The goals: Asen Chandarov 9' for Botev Plovdiv, Mauro Rodrigues 44' for Botev Plovdiv.

How the call on Botev Plovdiv v Lokomotiv Plovdiv has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Botev Plovdiv's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Botev Plovdiv win54%▲ +7
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Lokomotiv Plovdiv win20%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.