Regular Season - 6 · 12 September 2026, 14:30 UTC

Twente vs ADO Den Haag Eredivisie prediction & result

De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Twente 2-0 ADO Den Haag.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Twente, 29% draw, 21% ADO Den Haag — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Twente 1.73, ADO Den Haag 0.75.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: Twente vs ADO Den Haag

44%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 14%2-0 13%1-1 11%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Twente at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Twente99%Draw1%ADO Den Haag0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
F. de Bruin
45'
🔁F. de Bruinout: Matěj Šín
50'
Jalen Hawkins
🔁Marko Pjacaout: Filip Erik Thorvaldsen
54'
61'
🔁Jalen Hawkinsout: Jesse Bal
⚽Wout Weghorst (pen)
61'
67'
🔁Yannick Fereira Eduardoout: Donat Barany
67'
🔁Othniël Raterinkout: Daryl van Mieghem
🔁Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeterout: Daan Rots
69'
🔁Younes Taha El Idrissiout: Thomas Van den Belt
69'
74'
🔁Milan Hokkeout: Sekou Sylla
⚽Robin Propperassist: Daouda Weidmann
74'
🔁Daouda Weidmannout: Jordy Bawuah
76'
🔁Wout Weghorstout: Lucas hesselink of vennegoor
76'
Max Bruns
79'
87'
Sekou Sylla

Match stats — Twente vs ADO Den Haag

61%Possession39%
24Shots10
12On target5
12Corners2

Line-ups

Twente 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. UnnerstallG
  • 28B. van RooijD
  • 38M. BrunsD
  • 3R. PröpperD
  • 4R. NijstadD
  • 6R. ZerroukiM
  • 8D. WeidmannM
  • 7M. PjacaM
  • 10Y. TahaM
  • 27S. ØrjasæterM
  • 9W. WeghorstF
Substitutes
  • 29A. AdelgaardD
  • 18Jordy BawuahM
  • 16J. DrommelG
  • 24K. KurowskiD
  • 22R. PasveerG
  • 2M. RosiakD
  • 11D. RotsF
  • 17F. ThorvaldsenF
  • 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
Coach: J. van den Brom
ADO Den Haag 5-3-2
  • 1K. NikiémaG
  • 2O. RaterinkD
  • 5J. Jensen-AbbewD
  • 3P. MulderD
  • 4M. WaemD
  • 15M. HokkeD
  • 25J. KiloM
  • 16F. de BruinM
  • 17J. HawkinsM
  • 11E. RottierF
  • 46Y. EduardoF
Substitutes
  • 33M. ŠínM
  • 7D. van MieghemF
  • 10Illaijh de RuijterD
  • 22L. WilhelmD
  • 27N. ThomasF
  • 23N. ThiedeG
  • 18S. SyllaD
  • 19L. ReischlF
  • 35S. PuljhunD
Coach: R. Peter

Form going into Twente vs ADO Den Haag

Twente

  • W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Cambuur30 August 2026
  • W3-1PEC Zwolle16 August 2026

ADO Den Haag

  • L2-3Fortuna Sittard6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Feyenoord30 August 2026
  • L1-3away to GO Ahead Eagles23 August 2026
  • L1-4Groningen16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Twente6411125+713
18ADO Den Haag6015616-101

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Twente vs ADO Den Haag

  • 12 September 2026Twente 2–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
  • 24 July 2021ADO Den Haag 2–2 TwenteFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 May 2021Twente 3–2 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
  • 7 November 2020ADO Den Haag 2–4 TwenteEredivisie
  • 7 December 2019ADO Den Haag 0–0 TwenteEredivisie

Leading scorers: Twente and ADO Den Haag

Twente

  • W. Weghorst3 goals1 assists

ADO Den Haag

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.73 goals for Twente and 0.75 for ADO Den Haag; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Wout Weghorst 61' (Twente), Robin Propper 74' (Twente).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Twente the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Twente against 0.75 for ADO Den Haag. Twente's attack/defence rating is 0.83/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.28 for ADO Den Haag.