Regular Season - 6 · 12 September 2026, 16:45 UTC

GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen Eredivisie prediction & result

De Adelaarshorst, Deventer
Full time1 – 1

Final score: GO Ahead Eagles 1-1 Groningen.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% GO Ahead Eagles, 28% draw, 32% Groningen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: GO Ahead Eagles 1.75, Groningen 1.45.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen

64%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 9%1-2 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts GO Ahead Eagles at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

GO Ahead Eagles5%Draw91%Groningen4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
⚽Brynjólfur Darri Willumssonassist: Pelle Clement
🔁Alfons Sampstedout: Thibo Baeten
60'
64'
🔁David van der Werffout: Jacob Ondrejka
🔁Evert Linthorstout: Yassir Salah Rahmouni
67'
70'
🔁Wouter Prinsout: Marco Rente
77'
🔁Pelle Clementout: Nils Eggens
78'
🔁Brynjólfur Darri Willumssonout: Oskar Zawada
🔁Julius Dirksenout: Erik Flataker Hovden
78'
🔁Dean Ruben Jamesout: Oskar Siira Sivertsen
78'
🔁Mathis Surayout: Giovanni Van Zwam
79'
⚽Søren Tengstedtassist: Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson
82'
Yassir Salah Rahmouni
90+3'

Match stats — GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen

61%Possession39%
24Shots4
6On target2
9Corners0

Line-ups

GO Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. HaugG
  • 2A. SampstedD
  • 26J. DirksenD
  • 4J. KramerD
  • 5D. JamesD
  • 21M. MeulensteenM
  • 8E. LinthorstM
  • 10S. TengstedtM
  • 16V. EdvardsenM
  • 17M. SurayM
  • 9S. SigurðarsonF
Substitutes
  • 15R. WeijenbergM
  • 20E. WaayersD
  • 33N. VerdoniG
  • 25G. van ZwamD
  • 11O. SivertsenF
  • 34Y. RahmouniM
  • 18R. MargaretF
  • 6T. JukićD
  • 30T. HullemanG
Coach: J. Oosting
Groningen 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. VaessenG
  • 14J. SchreudersD
  • 4M. CsingerD
  • 3T. BlokzijlD
  • 2Wouter PrinsD
  • 8T. de JongeM
  • 18T. LandM
  • 17D. van der WerffM
  • 26T. van BergenM
  • 24P. ClementM
  • 9B. WillumssonF
Substitutes
  • 44Besnik MashukuM
  • 19O. ZawadaF
  • 20Nils EggensF
  • 11J. OndrejkaF
  • 5M. RenteD
  • 13L. ŠtubljarG
  • 15E. van der LaanD
  • 30P. BoevinkG
  • 53J. HallM
Coach: D. Lukkien

Form going into GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen

GO Ahead Eagles

  • D3-3away to Utrecht8 September 2026
  • L2-5away to AZ Alkmaar29 August 2026
  • W3-1ADO Den Haag23 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Feyenoord16 August 2026

Groningen

  • D2-2Twente6 September 2026
  • L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
  • L1-5away to PSV Eindhoven23 August 2026
  • W4-1away to ADO Den Haag16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8GO Ahead Eagles62311513+29
9Groningen62221213-18

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen

  • 12 September 2026GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 11 April 2026Groningen 0–0 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
  • 21 December 2025GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 18 January 2025GO Ahead Eagles 2–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 29 September 2024Groningen 0–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
  • 7 May 2023GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 GroningenEredivisie

Leading scorers: GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen

GO Ahead Eagles

  • S. Tengstedt5 goals2 assists
  • V. Edvardsen3 goals2 assists

Groningen

  • B. Willumsson4 goals
  • T. van Bergen3 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.75 goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.45 for Groningen; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 32' (Groningen), Søren Tengstedt 82' (GO Ahead Eagles).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives GO Ahead Eagles the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles against 1.45 for Groningen. GO Ahead Eagles's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.21 for Groningen.