12 September 2026, 16:45 UTC

GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen Eredivisie prediction & result

De Adelaarshorst, Deventer
Full time1 – 1

Final score: GO Ahead Eagles 1-1 Groningen.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% GO Ahead Eagles, 27% draw, 33% Groningen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts GO Ahead Eagles at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

GO Ahead Eagles5%Draw91%Groningen4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
⚽Brynjólfur Darri Willumssonassist: Pelle Clement
🔁Alfons Sampstedout: Thibo Baeten
60'
64'
🔁David van der Werffout: Jacob Ondrejka
🔁Evert Linthorstout: Yassir Salah Rahmouni
67'
70'
🔁Wouter Prinsout: Marco Rente
77'
🔁Pelle Clementout: Nils Eggens
78'
🔁Brynjólfur Darri Willumssonout: Oskar Zawada
🔁Julius Dirksenout: Erik Flataker Hovden
78'
🔁Dean Ruben Jamesout: Oskar Siira Sivertsen
78'
🔁Mathis Surayout: Giovanni Van Zwam
79'
⚽Søren Tengstedtassist: Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson
82'
Yassir Salah Rahmouni
90+3'

Match stats — GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen

61%Possession39%
24Shots4
6On target2
9Corners0

Line-ups

GO Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. HaugG
  • 2A. SampstedD
  • 26J. DirksenD
  • 4J. KramerD
  • 5D. JamesD
  • 21M. MeulensteenM
  • 8E. LinthorstM
  • 10S. TengstedtM
  • 16V. EdvardsenM
  • 17M. SurayM
  • 9S. SigurðarsonF
Substitutes
  • 15R. WeijenbergM
  • 20E. WaayersD
  • 33N. VerdoniG
  • 25G. van ZwamD
  • 11O. SivertsenF
  • 34Y. RahmouniM
  • 18R. MargaretF
  • 6T. JukićD
  • 30T. HullemanG
Coach: J. Oosting
Groningen 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. VaessenG
  • 14J. SchreudersD
  • 4M. CsingerD
  • 3T. BlokzijlD
  • 2Wouter PrinsD
  • 8T. de JongeM
  • 18T. LandM
  • 17D. van der WerffM
  • 26T. van BergenM
  • 24P. ClementM
  • 9B. WillumssonF
Substitutes
  • 44Besnik MashukuM
  • 19O. ZawadaF
  • 20Nils EggensF
  • 11J. OndrejkaF
  • 5M. RenteD
  • 13L. ŠtubljarG
  • 15E. van der LaanD
  • 30P. BoevinkG
  • 53J. HallM
Coach: D. Lukkien

Form going into GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen

GO Ahead Eagles

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to Utrecht8 September 2026
  • L2-5away to AZ Alkmaar29 August 2026
  • W3-1ADO Den Haag23 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Feyenoord16 August 2026
  • W4-1Willem II8 August 2026

Groningen

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Twente6 September 2026
  • L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
  • L1-5away to PSV Eindhoven23 August 2026
  • W4-1away to ADO Den Haag16 August 2026
  • W2-1Utrecht9 August 2026

What these results say

  • GO Ahead Eagles scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • GO Ahead Eagles conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for GO Ahead Eagles had three goals or more.
  • Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Groningen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Groningen had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9GO Ahead Eagles103522323014
8Groningen104332421+315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen

  • 11 April 2026Groningen 0–0 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
  • 21 December 2025GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 18 January 2025GO Ahead Eagles 2–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 29 September 2024Groningen 0–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
  • 7 May 2023GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 GroningenEredivisie

The full GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen record →

Leading scorers: GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen

GO Ahead Eagles

GoalsAssists

  • S. Tengstedt82
  • S. Sigurðarson41

Groningen

GoalsAssists

  • B. Willumsson80
  • T. van Bergen63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for GO Ahead Eagles at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 32' for Groningen, Søren Tengstedt 82' for GO Ahead Eagles.

How the call on GO Ahead Eagles v Groningen has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Groningen's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. GO Ahead Eagles win40%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Groningen win33%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.