Ludogorets
vs
Arda Kardzhali
First League prediction
Our model says: Ludogorets 1–0 Arda Kardzhali
The model makes it 48% Ludogorets, 29% draw, 23% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Ludogorets 1.70, Arda Kardzhali 0.82.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ludogorets are 3rd on 23 points from 9 games; Arda Kardzhali are 5th on 17 points from 10 games — First League.
- Ludogorets are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Septemvri Sofia.
- Arda Kardzhali are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Cherno More Varna.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 April 2026, ended Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Ludogorets.
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali
Ludogorets
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna30 August 2026
- D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
- W2-0Botev Plovdiv15 August 2026
Arda Kardzhali
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 September 2026
- L1-4away to CSKA Sofia12 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Plovdiv4 September 2026
- W2-0Botev Vratsa31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv24 August 2026
What these results say
- Ludogorets went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali
- 15 April 2026Arda Kardzhali 1–0 LudogoretsFirst League
- 9 November 2025Ludogorets 2–3 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 26 May 2025Ludogorets 2–2 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 9 May 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–1 LudogoretsFirst League
- 4 December 2024Arda Kardzhali 0–4 LudogoretsFirst League
- 3 August 2024Ludogorets 5–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
The two sides
Ludogorets carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.4 for Arda Kardzhali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Ludogorets and 0.82 for Arda Kardzhali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ludogorets rate 0.78 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arda Kardzhali rate 0.64 and 1.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ludogorets a 14.3% chance of the title and Arda Kardzhali 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Ludogorets against 0.82 for Arda Kardzhali. Ludogorets's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.59 for Arda Kardzhali.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ludogorets at home · Arda Kardzhali away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Ludogorets 9, Arda Kardzhali 10.
Ludogorets score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Arda Kardzhali have let in 5 there.
Arda Kardzhali score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Ludogorets have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ludogorets
- at CSKA Sofia24 Oct · First Leaguewin 33%
- vs CSKA 194831 Oct · First Leaguewin 42%
- at Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 Nov · First Leaguewin 47%
- vs Dunav Ruse21 Nov · First Leaguewin 60%
Arda Kardzhali
- vs Levski Sofia24 Oct · First Leaguewin 24%
- at Spartak Varna31 Oct · First Leaguewin 41%
- vs Septemvri Sofia7 Nov · First Leaguewin 51%
- at Slavia Sofia21 Nov · First Leaguewin 35%
- vs CSKA 194828 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.