CF Pachuca
vs
Necaxa
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: CF Pachuca 2–0 Necaxa
The model makes it 52% CF Pachuca, 27% draw, 21% Necaxa — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: CF Pachuca 1.97, Necaxa 0.85.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: CF Pachuca vs Necaxa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CF Pachuca at 52% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CF Pachuca vs Necaxa
CF Pachuca
- L0-1away to Santos Laguna27 September 2026
- D2-2Club Tijuana21 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atlante FC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas29 August 2026
Necaxa
- L1-3away to Atletico San Luis19 September 2026
- L0-1Puebla12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Tigres UANL6 September 2026
- L1-3Cruz Azul29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pumas UNAM24 August 2026
What these results say
- CF Pachuca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Necaxa
- 4 March 2026CF Pachuca 2–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 4 October 2025Necaxa 0–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 12 April 2025Necaxa 3–5 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 3 November 2024CF Pachuca 6–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 6 May 2024CF Pachuca 2–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 24 February 2024Necaxa 1–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Necaxa
CF Pachuca
- S. Rondón10 goals
Necaxa
- J. Carranza5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
CF Pachuca carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.42 for Necaxa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for CF Pachuca and 0.85 for Necaxa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CF Pachuca rate 0.76 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Necaxa rate 0.64 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CF Pachuca a 0.3% chance of the title and Necaxa 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CF Pachuca the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for CF Pachuca against 0.85 for Necaxa. CF Pachuca's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.5 for Necaxa.