CF Pachuca vs Necaxa Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: CF Pachuca 3-3 Necaxa.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% CF Pachuca, 23% draw, 17% Necaxa — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
CF Pachuca at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CF Pachuca vs Necaxa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25C. MorenoG
- 12S. SantosD
- 4Eduardo BauermannD
- 2S. BarretoD
- 15F. VenegasD
- 30S. RodríguezM
- 16C. RiveraM
- 207Ian Josué Zavala OsorioM
- 7R. PizarroM
- 11O. IdrissiM
- 23S. RondónF
- 9A. AlcárazF
- 26Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezM
- 13J. BerlangaD
- 32P. BudibD
- 206Thomas ContrerasM
- 31J. EulogioG
- 211C. HernandezF
- 6M. IsaísD
- 21N. VallejoF
- 12L. JiménezG
- 2E. MartínezD
- 3A. OliverosD
- 15D. OchoaD
- 88C. VargasD
- 16P. PedrazaM
- 99M. RodríguezM
- 6D. LeyvaM
- 21M. EspíndolaM
- 13Owen de Jesús González OjedaM
- 9J. CarranzaF
- 7K. RoseroF
- 8L. FaravelliM
- 5Kaiky NavesD
- 33R. MartínezD
- 20F. MéndezD
- 181J. OrantesG
- 10J. RuizM
- 11J. TorresM
- 90J. ValenciaF
Form going into CF Pachuca vs Necaxa
CF Pachuca
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Santos Laguna27 September 2026
- D2-2Club Tijuana21 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atlante FC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas29 August 2026
Necaxa
All competitions we cover
- L2-4Club America28 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico San Luis19 September 2026
- L0-1Puebla12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Tigres UANL6 September 2026
- L1-3Cruz Azul29 August 2026
What these results say
- CF Pachuca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Necaxa
- 4 March 2026CF Pachuca 2–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 4 October 2025Necaxa 0–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 12 April 2025Necaxa 3–5 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 3 November 2024CF Pachuca 6–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 6 May 2024CF Pachuca 2–1 NecaxaLiga MX
Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Necaxa
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón162
Necaxa
GoalsAssists
- J. Carranza72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CF Pachuca and Necaxa drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Pachuca at 60% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Matias Espindola 15' for Necaxa, Julián Carranza 41' for Necaxa, Eduardo Dos Santos 45+8' for CF Pachuca, Juan Valencia (penalty) 79' for Necaxa, Salomón Rondón 84' for CF Pachuca, Salomón Rondón 87' for CF Pachuca. On expected goals it finished 1.15–3.25.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave CF Pachuca a 5.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.1% after a win, 8.3% after a draw, 16.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.3%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
For Necaxa the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 74.1% going in: 50.5% after a win, 71.2% after a draw, 80.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 71.2%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on CF Pachuca v Necaxa has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 52% / 27% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 60% / 23% / 17%: the biggest move is CF Pachuca's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- CF Pachuca win60%▲ +8
- Draw23%▼ −4
- Necaxa win17%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.