Regular Season - 10 · 11 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Vendsyssel FF vs HB Koge 1. Division prediction & result

Nord Energi Arena, Hjorring
Referee: J. Bogelund
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Vendsyssel FF 0-2 HB Koge.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Vendsyssel FF, 29% draw, 33% HB Koge — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Vendsyssel FF 1.33, HB Koge 1.22.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Vendsyssel FF vs HB Koge

53%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 10%0-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Vendsyssel FF at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vendsyssel FF0%Draw1%HB Koge99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

A. N. Atlason
7'
B. Konteh
34'
45+1'
⚽M. Jensen
51'
⚽M. Warmingassist: F. Isaki
🔁H. Tangenout: S. Lodberg
56'
🔁B. Clemmensenout: J. Sommer
56'
🔁A. Olsenout: F. Mortensen
68'
🔁A. N. Atlasonout: S. Simpson
68'
73'
🔁S. Haldout: V. Sorensen
73'
🔁M. Warmingout: C. Jensen Tue
K. Engstrom
76'
78'
G. Larsen
78'
🔁G. Larsenout: M. Romer
🔁S. Michaelout: A. Rise
82'
87'
🔁F. Isakiout: N. Stolshoj
87'
🔁M. Jensenout: N. Jakobsen
J. Sommer
89'

Line-ups

Vendsyssel FF
  • 1L. Schulz
  • 23A. Olsen
  • 21B. Clemmensen
  • 4B. Konteh
  • 73M. Lauritsen
  • 30A. N. Atlason
  • 8S. Michael
  • 15H. Tangen
  • 19E. Pedersen
  • 12A. C. Vendelbo
  • 9L. Steffensen
Substitutes
  • 16M. Nielsen
  • 27J. Sommer
  • 14F. Mortensen
  • 18M. Holt
  • 31A. Rise
  • 22P. Williams
  • 10S. Simpson
  • 17S. Lodberg
  • 5S. Roma
Coach: Kim Engstrom
HB Koge
  • 1N. Sommergaard
  • 23M. Westergren
  • 22M. Jakobsen
  • 2L. Bust
  • 4S. Hald
  • 28G. Larsen
  • 7M. Jensen
  • 6R. Brodersen
  • 25F. Isaki
  • 9T. Thomsen
  • 11M. Warming
Substitutes
  • 16C. Mols
  • 5G. Culhaci
  • 14V. Sorensen
  • 8M. Romer
  • 21N. Jakobsen
  • 34W. Palm
  • 10C. Jensen Tue
  • 27N. Stolshoj
Coach: Nicklas Pedersen

Form going into Vendsyssel FF vs HB Koge

Vendsyssel FF

  • D2-2away to Aalborg20 September 2026
  • D0-0Aarhus Fremad11 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Vejle4 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Esbjerg30 August 2026

HB Koge

  • W5-2Hobro21 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Esbjerg12 September 2026
  • D1-1Hillerød4 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Aalborg29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Vendsyssel FF failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Vendsyssel FF scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • HB Koge went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • HB Koge failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • HB Koge scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Vendsyssel FF102441016-610
8HB Koge102441317-410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vendsyssel FF vs HB Koge

  • 11 October 2026Vendsyssel FF 0–2 HB Koge1. Division
  • 10 May 2025Vendsyssel FF 0–1 HB Koge1. Division
  • 4 April 2025HB Koge 0–0 Vendsyssel FF1. Division
  • 2 November 2024Vendsyssel FF 1–1 HB Koge1. Division
  • 20 September 2024HB Koge 0–2 Vendsyssel FF1. Division
  • 26 November 2023Vendsyssel FF 2–0 HB Koge1. Division

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.33 goals for Vendsyssel FF and 1.22 for HB Koge; the game produced 0 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: M. Jensen 45' (HB Koge), M. Warming 51' (HB Koge).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Vendsyssel FF the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Vendsyssel FF against 1.22 for HB Koge. Vendsyssel FF's attack/defence rating is 0.42/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.95 for HB Koge.