Septemvri Sofia
vs
Dunav Ruse
First League prediction
Our model says: Septemvri Sofia 2–1 Dunav Ruse
The model makes it 36% Septemvri Sofia, 29% draw, 35% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 1.38, Dunav Ruse 1.37.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Septemvri Sofia and Dunav Ruse are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Septemvri Sofia at 36% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
Septemvri Sofia
- L0-3Botev Plovdiv19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ludogorets14 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Vratsa4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia28 August 2026
- W1-0CSKA 194823 August 2026
Dunav Ruse
- D2-2Botev Vratsa19 September 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194812 September 2026
- L0-1Slavia Sofia7 September 2026
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia31 August 2026
- L1-3away to Cherno More Varna21 August 2026
What these results say
- Septemvri Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
- 22 April 2024Septemvri Sofia 1–2 Dunav RuseSecond League
- 2 October 2023Dunav Ruse 1–1 Septemvri SofiaSecond League
- 26 April 2019Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 8 April 2019Dunav Ruse 2–2 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 9 December 2018Septemvri Sofia 2–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 24 August 2018Dunav Ruse 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Septemvri Sofia carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.12 for Dunav Ruse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.37 for Dunav Ruse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Septemvri Sofia rate 0.44 in attack and 2.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dunav Ruse rate 0.53 and 2.29.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Septemvri Sofia the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Septemvri Sofia against 1.37 for Dunav Ruse. Septemvri Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.29 for Dunav Ruse.