11 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse First League prediction & result

Dragalevtsi Stadium,, Sofia
Referee: Todor Kirov
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Septemvri Sofia 2-3 Dunav Ruse.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Septemvri Sofia, 28% draw, 36% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Septemvri Sofia at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Septemvri Sofia4%Draw92%Dunav Ruse4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Frantzety Herard (pen)
12'
15'
dimitar todorov
20'
jose cabarcas
⚽Frantzety Herardassist: Andre Liberal
25'
Sergeev petar gospodinov
35'
⚽Andre Liberal
37'
🔁Andre Liberalout: aleksandar dzhamov
40'
41'
🔁George kitanovout: Bartosz Zelazowski
46'
🔁Radoslav Apostolovout: Elie Sou
46'
🔁Kyriakos Antoniouout: Mario dilchovski
⚽Pedro Igor (pen)
56'
63'
⚽Ilker Budinov
65'
🔁Njomgang William Fonkeuout: Vladan Vidaković
73'
⚽Andre Alves
🔁Pedro Igorout: Stoyan Stoichkov
80'
🔁Galin Ivanovout: nicolas fontaine
80'
84'
🔁Ilker Budinovout: Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski
90'
⚽Alexander Valiño Navasal
90+5'

Match stats — Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse

64%Possession36%
12Shots5
8On target3
7Corners4

Line-ups

Septemvri Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 12V. IvanovG
  • 8B. PenchevM
  • 26V. OzornwaforD
  • 4M. HristovD
  • 15P. GospodinovD
  • 5Y. BaurenskiM
  • 6Pedro FerreiraM
  • 29F. HerardF
  • 33G. IvanovM
  • 19Pedro IgorF
  • 27André Filipe Rio LiberalF
Substitutes
  • 14A. VutovM
  • 2S. VulikićD
  • 20B. TomovskiD
  • 28S. StoichkovF
  • 16V. MihaylovM
  • 10N. IlievM
  • 17N. FontaineF
  • 11A. DzhamovF
  • 30Viktor DobrevM
Coach: Simão Freitas
Dunav Ruse 3-5-2
  • 33G. KitanovG
  • 39Andre AlvesD
  • 4J. CabarcasD
  • 5K. AntoniouD
  • 51I. BudinovD
  • 14R. ApostolovM
  • 10K. BoychevM
  • 17N. FonkeuM
  • 88D. TodorovD
  • 9Álex ValiñoF
  • 23Jordan Layn Saint-LouisM
Substitutes
  • 1B. ŻelazowskiG
  • 6S. YovkovD
  • 44V. VidakovićM
  • 19S. StefanovM
  • 78Elie SouM
  • 77A. SimeonovF
  • 18I. KeïtaF
  • 24S. GavrilovM
  • 2M. DilchovskiD
Coach: G. Chilikov

Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse

Septemvri Sofia

First League

  • L0-3Botev Plovdiv19 September 2026

Dunav Ruse

First League

  • D2-2Botev Vratsa19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Septemvri Sofia143291225-1311
10Dunav Ruse143381623-712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse

  • 22 April 2024Septemvri Sofia 1–2 Dunav RuseSecond League
  • 2 October 2023Dunav Ruse 1–1 Septemvri SofiaSecond League
  • 26 April 2019Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
  • 8 April 2019Dunav Ruse 2–2 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
  • 9 December 2018Septemvri Sofia 2–1 Dunav RuseFirst League

Leading scorers: Septemvri Sofia and Dunav Ruse

Septemvri Sofia

GoalsAssists

  • André Filipe Rio Liberal11
  • F. Herard10
  • A. Dzhamov10

Dunav Ruse

GoalsAssists

  • I. Budinov11
  • Andre Alves10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dunav Ruse won 3–2 at Septemvri Sofia. The goals: Frantzety Herard 25' for Septemvri Sofia, Andre Liberal 37' for Septemvri Sofia, Ilker Budinov 63' for Dunav Ruse, Andre Alves 73' for Dunav Ruse, Alexander Valiño Navasal 90' for Dunav Ruse.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Septemvri Sofia a 56.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 45.6% after a win, 59.3% after a draw, 66.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.0%, 9.4 points higher than before the match.

For Dunav Ruse the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 64.3% going in: 53.8% after a win, 66.4% after a draw, 73.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.8%, 10.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.