26 September 2026, 22:50 UTC

Cruz Azul vs Toluca Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Referee: Katia García
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Cruz Azul 3-3 Toluca.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Cruz Azul, 28% draw, 33% Toluca — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cruz Azul at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cruz Azul0%Draw5%Toluca95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nicolás Ibañezassist: José Paradela
7'
37'
Diego Barbosa
⚽Gabriel Fernándezassist: Nicolás Ibañez
38'
Agustín Palavecino
45+2'
45+2'
Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich
45'
🔁Diego Barbosaout: Érick Gutiérrez
52'
•Luan Garcia
Willer Ditta
52'
55'
⚽Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro (pen)
56'
⚽Alexis Vegaassist: Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
Gonzalo Piovi
57'
73'
🔁Pavel Pérezout: Jesús Angulo
🔁Nicolás Ibañezout: Andrés Montaño
76'
🔁Agustín Palavecinoout: Luka Romero
76'
78'
⚽Alexis Vegaassist: Nicolás Castro
82'
🔁Alexis Vegaout: Jorge Diaz
🔁Gonzalo Pioviout: Rogelio Gonzalez
88'
🔁Alan Mozoout: Osinachi Ebere
88'
90'
🔁Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castroout: Sebastián Aceves
⚽Gabriel Fernándezassist: Andrés Montaño
90+5'
🔁José Paradelaout: Juan José Calero Sierra
90+7'
Andrés Montaño
90+9'

Match stats — Cruz Azul vs Toluca

49%Possession51%
17Shots18
7On target7
4Corners5

Line-ups

Cruz Azul 5-3-2
  • 1A. GudiñoG
  • 2A. MozoD
  • 4W. DittaD
  • 33G. PioviD
  • 5J. OrozcoD
  • 3O. CamposD
  • 8A. PalavecinoM
  • 20J. ParadelaM
  • 19C. RodríguezM
  • 7N. IbáñezF
  • 21G. FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 18L. RomeroF
  • 55R. GonzalezM
  • 11C. EbereF
  • 60Ariel Castro SevillaM
  • 14J. CaleroF
  • 10A. MontañoM
  • 12A. MontesD
  • 30E. OchoaG
  • 15R. OrquinD
Coach: Joel Huiqui
Toluca 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. GarcíaG
  • 4B. MéndezD
  • 13LuanD
  • 6F. PereiraD
  • 17B. GarcíaD
  • 2D. BarbosaM
  • 8N. CastroM
  • 11HelinhoM
  • 15P. PérezM
  • 9A. VegaM
  • 26PaulinhoF
Substitutes
  • 184S. AcevesM
  • 10J. AnguloM
  • 12R. BeltránG
  • 3A. BriseñoD
  • 29J. DíazM
  • 198J. EstradaF
  • 35É. GutiérrezM
  • 206Erick OrtaD
  • 205Edher Guadalupe Segura TéllezM
Coach: A. Mohamed

Form going into Cruz Azul vs Toluca

Cruz Azul

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Monterrey20 September 2026
  • W4-3Club America13 September 2026
  • W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Necaxa29 August 2026
  • L0-2Atlas23 August 2026

Toluca

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Santos Laguna21 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Puebla16 September 2026
  • W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
  • W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Cruz Azul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Toluca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Toluca won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Toluca had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Cruz Azul148243223+926
5Toluca146532919+1023

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs Toluca

  • 26 July 2026Toluca 1–3 Cruz AzulCampeón de Campeones
  • 7 February 2026Toluca 1–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
  • 24 August 2025Cruz Azul 1–0 TolucaLiga MX
  • 20 April 2025Toluca 2–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
  • 21 July 2024Cruz Azul 1–1 TolucaLiga MX

The full Cruz Azul vs Toluca record →

Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Toluca

Cruz Azul

GoalsAssists

  • N. Ibáñez52
  • G. Fernández51

Toluca

GoalsAssists

  • F. Viñas70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cruz Azul and Toluca drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Cruz Azul at 39% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nicolás Ibañez 7' for Cruz Azul, Gabriel Fernández 38' for Cruz Azul, Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro (penalty) 55' for Toluca, Alexis Vega 56' for Toluca, Alexis Vega 78' for Toluca, Gabriel Fernández 90+5' for Cruz Azul.

How the call on Cruz Azul v Toluca has moved

First published on 12 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 39% / 28% / 33%: the biggest move is Cruz Azul's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Cruz Azul win39%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Toluca win33%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.