Club Tijuana
vs
Atlas
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Club Tijuana 2–0 Atlas
The model makes it 50% Club Tijuana, 27% draw, 23% Atlas — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Club Tijuana 1.95, Atlas 0.97.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Club Tijuana vs Atlas
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Club Tijuana wins, grey are draws, red are Atlas wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Tijuana at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club Tijuana vs Atlas
Club Tijuana
- L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas23 August 2026
- W2-1Cruz Azul17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico San Luis1 August 2026
Atlas
- L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
- L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
- W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 | Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Club Tijuana and Atlas
Club Tijuana
- G. Mora4 goals1 assists
Atlas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Club Tijuana carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.46 for Atlas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Club Tijuana and 0.97 for Atlas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Tijuana rate 0.77 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlas rate 0.71 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Tijuana a 6.1% chance of the title and Atlas 1.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Tijuana the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Club Tijuana against 0.97 for Atlas. Club Tijuana's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.56 for Atlas.