Club Tijuana vs Atlas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Tijuana 2-3 Atlas.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Club Tijuana, 28% draw, 25% Atlas — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Tijuana at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Tijuana vs Atlas
Line-ups
- 2A. RodríguezG
- 17R. ÁrcigaD
- 4Unai BilbaoD
- 6A. GómezD
- 16J. VegaD
- 8I. TonaM
- 7Adonis PreciadoM
- 26A. PerezM
- 15I. RiveroM
- 11F. GonzálezM
- 9MouradF
- 202J. GonzálezF
- 34F. BoyaM
- 13Elias ManoelF
- 19D. AbreuF
- 29S. HernándezG
- 188A. MagallonD
- 197J. OrdunoM
- 33P. OrtízD
- 31Y. PadillaF
- 12C. VargasG
- 6É. ZaldívarD
- 13G. AguirreD
- 44J. PurataD
- 20K. ZenónM
- 18E. MontielM
- 15Paulo RamírezM
- 16M. ValenzuelaM
- 8R. MmaeeM
- 10Luís EstevesM
- 9F. MonzónF
- 22A. SánchezG
- 5J. RodríguezD
- 26A. RochaM
- 27V. RÃosM
- 4A. MoraD
- 203J. MartínF
- 23S. HernándezM
- 58A. GonzálezF
- 218jorge San MartínD
Form going into Club Tijuana vs Atlas
Club Tijuana
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to CF Pachuca21 September 2026
- L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas22 August 2026
- W2-1Cruz Azul17 August 2026
Atlas
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Pumas UNAM19 September 2026
- L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
- L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
What these results say
- Club Tijuana scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 21 |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Atlas
- 5 March 2026Atlas 2–1 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 8 November 2025Club Tijuana 2–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 10 March 2025Club Tijuana 3–4 AtlasLiga MX
- 25 November 2024Club Tijuana 3–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 27 October 2024Atlas 0–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Tijuana and Atlas
Club Tijuana
GoalsAssists
- G. Mora51
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- Luís Esteves53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlas won 3–2 at Club Tijuana. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Tijuana at 47% and given a win for Atlas 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ryan Mmaee 15' for Atlas, Mourad El Ghezouani (penalty) 21' for Club Tijuana, José Rivero 37' for Club Tijuana, Luís André Leite Esteves (penalty) 87' for Atlas, Florián Monzón 90+1' for Atlas.
How the call on Club Tijuana v Atlas has moved
First published on 12 Sep at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Club Tijuana's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Club Tijuana win47%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Atlas win25%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Club Tijuana's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Atlas's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.