21 September 2026, 02:10 UTC

Club Queretaro vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio La Corregidora
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Club Queretaro 1-1 Leon.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Club Queretaro, 27% draw, 27% Leon — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Club Queretaro at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Club Queretaro6%Draw91%Leon3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Bayron Duarte
44'
46'
🔁J. Cortizoout: J. Lara
46'
🔁A. Alvaradoout: E. Guerra
Lucas Abascia
52'
54'
⚽D. Arcila (pen)
🔁B. Duarteout: A. Alcala
55'
🔁Paulo Victorout: I. Benito
55'
Daniel Parra
58'
⚽I. Benitoassist: M. Coronel
60'
Ali Ávila
62'
63'
Iván Moreno
68'
🔁F. Beltran Cruzout: S. Reyes
68'
🔁S. Vegasout: I. Diaz
🔁E. Gimenezout: E. Duenas
79'
🔁C. Garciaout: D. Munoz
80'
88'
🔁D. Cambindoout: S. Londono
90'
Daniel Arcila
90'
Santiago Londoño
🔁M. Coronelout: B. Parra
90+2'

Match stats — Club Queretaro vs Leon

39%Possession61%
19Shots14
4On target7
8Corners1
1.82xG1.72

Goals against chances

Club Queretaro1 from 1.82 xGless than the chances were worth
Leon1 from 1.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Club Queretaro 4-2-3-1
  • 25G. AllisonG
  • 24B. DuarteD
  • 13D. ReyesD
  • 2L. AbasciaD
  • 27D. ParraD
  • 4C. GarciaM
  • 5S. HomenchenkoM
  • 16E. GimenezM
  • 11M. CoronelM
  • 12Paulo VictorM
  • 9A. AvilaF
Substitutes
  • 1J. HernandezG
  • 15C. Villanueva
  • 29W. MadridM
  • 18E. DuenasM
  • 20A. AlcalaM
  • 8B. ParraM
  • 30J. MartinezM
  • 17D. MunozM
  • 26E. PerezF
Coach: Eduardo Gonzalez Herrera Esteban
Leon 4-1-4-1
  • 23O. GarciaG
  • 7I. MorenoD
  • 14J. RomanaD
  • 3J. GuevaraD
  • 5S. VegasD
  • 20R. EcheverriaM
  • 16J. CortizoM
  • 6F. Beltran Cruz
  • 19A. AlvaradoM
  • 13D. ArcilaM
  • 27D. CambindoF
Substitutes
  • 12J. GonzalezG
  • 4B. ColulaD
  • 26S. ReyesM
  • 25P. BellonD
  • 33A. VillegasD
  • 15S. FierroM
  • 203J. LaraD
  • 18E. GuerraM
  • 21S. LondonoF
Coach: Javier Gandolfi

Form going into Club Queretaro vs Leon

Club Queretaro

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Club Tijuana12 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Atlas29 August 2026
  • L1-2Toluca22 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Pumas UNAM16 August 2026
  • W3-2Tigres UANL1 August 2026

Leon

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Atletico San Luis15 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Atlante FC29 August 2026
  • W2-0Monterrey22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026

What these results say

  • Club Queretaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs Leon

  • 7 February 2026Club Queretaro 2–0 LeonLiga MX
  • 30 August 2025Leon 3–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
  • 5 April 2025Club Queretaro 1–1 LeonLiga MX
  • 26 October 2024Leon 4–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
  • 6 April 2024Leon 0–2 Club QueretaroLiga MX

The full Club Queretaro vs Leon record →

Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Leon

Club Queretaro

GoalsAssists

  • S. Homenchenko52
  • A. Ávila50

Leon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Alvarado51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Club Queretaro and Leon drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Queretaro at 46% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: D. Arcila (penalty) 54' for Leon, I. Benito 60' for Club Queretaro. On expected goals it finished 1.82–1.72.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.