Cheltenham
vs
Chesterfield
League Two prediction
Our model says: Cheltenham 1–2 Chesterfield
The model makes it 35% Cheltenham, 28% draw, 37% Chesterfield — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Cheltenham 1.49, Chesterfield 1.59.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Cheltenham and Chesterfield are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cheltenham vs Chesterfield
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chesterfield at 37% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cheltenham vs Chesterfield
Cheltenham
- D1-1away to Colchester19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Crawley Town12 September 2026
- D2-2Grimsby5 September 2026
- W3-2York1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Barnet29 August 2026
Chesterfield
- W2-0York19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Oldham12 September 2026
- D3-3Barnet5 September 2026
- D1-1Gillingham1 September 2026
- L1-2away to Rotherham29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cheltenham | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cheltenham vs Chesterfield
- 3 April 2026Chesterfield 1–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 9 August 2025Cheltenham 0–2 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 1 February 2025Cheltenham 1–0 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 21 September 2024Chesterfield 1–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 17 March 2018Cheltenham 1–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 30 September 2017Chesterfield 0–2 CheltenhamLeague Two
Leading scorers: Cheltenham and Chesterfield
Cheltenham
- C. McCann6 goals
- J. Evans3 goals2 assists
- A. Weimann3 goals2 assists
Chesterfield
- L. Bonis3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cheltenham carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.25 for Chesterfield. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Cheltenham and 1.59 for Chesterfield. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cheltenham rate 0.58 in attack and 2.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chesterfield rate 0.53 and 1.76.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cheltenham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cheltenham a 5.6% chance of the title and Chesterfield 3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chesterfield the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Cheltenham against 1.59 for Chesterfield. Cheltenham's attack/defence rating is 0.58/2.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.76 for Chesterfield.