26 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Cheltenham vs Chesterfield League Two prediction & result

Whaddon Road, Cheltenham
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Cheltenham 2-1 Chesterfield.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Cheltenham, 28% draw, 38% Chesterfield — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Chesterfield at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cheltenham95%Draw5%Chesterfield0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Pierce Sweeney
12'
⚽Charlie McCannassist: Ryan Broom
17'
⚽Andreas Weimannassist: Jonathan Tomkinson
37'
49'
⚽Louie Marsh
Jordan Shipley
55'
🔁Jake Evansout: James Wilson
59'
70'
🔁Lee Bonisout: F. Bryden
🔁Pierce Sweeneyout: George Miller
78'
78'
🔁Joel Randallout: Liam Mandeville
78'
🔁Lewis Gordonout: Tom Pearce
78'
🔁George McEachranout: Kiano Dyer
Andreas Weimann
84'
🔁Andreas Weimannout: Jake Bickerstaff
86'
🔁Ryan Broomout: K. Otchere
87'
🔁Jordan Shipleyout: Freddie willcox
87'
87'
🔁Louie Marshout: Tom Naylor
Freddie willcox
89'

Match stats — Cheltenham vs Chesterfield

34%Possession66%
7Shots27
3On target11
2Corners11

Line-ups

Cheltenham 4-1-4-1
  • 23W. StanwayG
  • 3J. TomkinsonD
  • 5R. CundyD
  • 25P. SweeneyD
  • 4J. TomlinsonD
  • 7B. StevensonM
  • 19J. EvansM
  • 14R. BroomM
  • 8C. McCannM
  • 26J. ShipleyM
  • 18A. WeimannF
Substitutes
  • 11J. BickerstaffF
  • 1J. DayG
  • 10G. MillerF
  • 21G. NurseD
  • 33F. WillcoxM
  • 6J. WilsonD
  • 9K. OtchereF
Coach: S. Cotterill
Chesterfield 4-2-3-1
  • 23R. BootG
  • 33R. HuttonD
  • 5K. McFadzeanD
  • 6J. SimpsonD
  • 19L. GordonD
  • 20G. McEachranM
  • 8R. StirkM
  • 24D. MarkandayM
  • 18L. MarshM
  • 31J. RandallM
  • 10L. BonisF
Substitutes
  • 11D. DuffyM
  • 27K. DyerM
  • 7L. MandevilleM
  • 4T. NaylorM
  • 46T. PearceD
  • 26J. EcclestonD
  • 9F. BrydenF
Coach: P. Cook

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Cheltenham146352325-221
10Chesterfield145452421+319

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cheltenham vs Chesterfield

  • 3 April 2026Chesterfield 1–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 9 August 2025Cheltenham 0–2 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • 1 February 2025Cheltenham 1–0 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • 21 September 2024Chesterfield 1–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 17 March 2018Cheltenham 1–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two

Leading scorers: Cheltenham and Chesterfield

Cheltenham

GoalsAssists

  • C. McCann91
  • J. Evans44

Chesterfield

GoalsAssists

  • L. Marsh51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cheltenham beat Chesterfield 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Chesterfield at 38% and given a win for Cheltenham 34%. The goals: Charlie McCann 17' for Cheltenham, Andreas Weimann 37' for Cheltenham, Louie Marsh 49' for Chesterfield.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.