26 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City League Two prediction & result

Memorial Stadium, Bristol
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Bristol Rovers 1-0 Exeter City.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Bristol Rovers, 29% draw, 33% Exeter City — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bristol Rovers at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bristol Rovers96%Draw4%Exeter City0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

39'
Gwion Edwards
Steve Evans
40'
Ellis Harrison
60'
🔁Shaqai Fordeout: Reiss-Alexander Russell-Denny
64'
⚽Fabrizio Cavegn
66'
68'
🔁Jack Paul Taylorout: Andrew Jose Oluwabori
77'
🔁Gwion Edwardsout: George Birch
🔁Ellis Harrisonout: Joe Quigley
79'
85'
🔁Jake Doyle Hayesout: Josh Gordon
🔁Fabrizio Cavegnout: Bobby Kamwa
89'
🔁Jack Sparkesout: Ben Purrington
90'

Match stats — Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City

44%Possession56%
17Shots8
5On target5
6Corners3

Line-ups

Bristol Rovers 4-2-3-1
  • 1Brad YoungG
  • 2T. JamesD
  • 4K. BalmerD
  • 17C. KellyD
  • 5A. KilgourD
  • 21R. SmallwoodM
  • 6C. MolaM
  • 7S. FordeM
  • 3J. SparkesM
  • 19E. HarrisonM
  • 29F. CavegnF
Substitutes
  • 22Keenan GoughM
  • 10B. KamwaF
  • 14B. PurringtonD
  • 9J. QuigleyF
  • 8R. Russell-DennyM
  • 27P. SanyaoluM
  • 32Charlie BinnsG
Coach: S. Evans
Exeter City 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. BycroftG
  • 2L. SamuelD
  • 6J. TaylorD
  • 5J. FitzwaterD
  • 3L. WoodhouseD
  • 31J. Doyle-HayesM
  • 16C. CumminsM
  • 7G. EdwardsM
  • 12R. ColeM
  • 23Ethan SutherlandM
  • 32D. RoseF
Substitutes
  • 8T. PerryM
  • 22Frankie PhillipsG
  • 18Liam OakesD
  • 14H. KiteM
  • 10J. GordonF
  • 20George BirchM
  • 11A. OluwaboriF
Coach: M. Taylor

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Bristol Rovers145181723-616
12Exeter City14545119+219

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City

  • 12 April 2025Bristol Rovers 1–2 Exeter CityLeague One
  • 26 December 2024Exeter City 3–1 Bristol RoversLeague One
  • 29 October 2024Bristol Rovers 2–3 Exeter CityEFL Trophy
  • 3 February 2024Exeter City 0–1 Bristol RoversLeague One
  • 23 January 2024Bristol Rovers 0–1 Exeter CityLeague One

The result against the call

Bristol Rovers beat Exeter City 1–0. The model had made a win for Bristol Rovers its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Fabrizio Cavegn 66' for Bristol Rovers.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.