Atlante FC vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlante FC 4-2 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Atlante FC, 29% draw, 35% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlante FC at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlante FC vs Monterrey
Line-ups
- 1Ó. JiménezG
- 29Walter PortalesD
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 4E. TerceroD
- 44A. QuirozD
- 37W. ClarD
- 30M. SarrafioreM
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 19L. CalzadillaM
- 9L. PuenteF
- 7J. JulioF
- 20G. AdameM
- 14C. AlfaroD
- 22R. BarraganG
- 18C. BermúdezM
- 15Jairón Andrés Charcopa CabezasF
- 27A. EscobarD
- 25M. FernándezM
- 11Joaquin Alejandro Moxica ChapaF
- 3G. SánchezD
- 1E. AndradaG
- 2R. ChávezD
- 13C. SalcedoD
- 19A. AcevesD
- 3G. ArteagaD
- 5F. AmbrízM
- 8Óliver TorresM
- 18Cesar Garza CantuM
- 10L. OrellanoM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 32U. ĐurđevićF
- 27R. de la RosaF
- 9D. RossiM
- 30J. RodríguezM
- 21L. ReyesD
- 33S. MedinaD
- 200O. GalvezM
- 11Iker Jareth Fimbres OchoaM
- 22L. CárdenasG
Form going into Atlante FC vs Monterrey
Atlante FC
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Puebla19 September 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas6 September 2026
- D1-1Leon29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Tigres UANL22 August 2026
Monterrey
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Cruz Azul20 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL13 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico San Luis31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Leon22 August 2026
- W6-1FC Juarez16 August 2026
What these results say
- Atlante FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atlante FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 14 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlante FC vs Monterrey
- 4 July 2026Atlante FC 1–1 MonterreyFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Atlante FC and Monterrey
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos63
- D. Rossi53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlante FC beat Monterrey 4–2. The model had made a win for Atlante FC its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Luis Puente 11' for Atlante FC, Hugo Cuypers 18' for Monterrey, Luis Calzadilla 53' for Atlante FC, Eduardo Tercero 64' for Atlante FC, Roberto de la Rosa 82' for Monterrey, Jhojan Julio 90+6' for Atlante FC.
How the call on Atlante FC v Monterrey has moved
First published on 12 Sep at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Atlante FC's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Atlante FC win36%▼ −7
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Monterrey win35%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.