Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Club Queretaro
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 Club Queretaro
The model makes it 52% Guadalajara Chivas, 25% draw, 23% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Guadalajara Chivas 2.38, Club Queretaro 1.17.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Guadalajara Chivas wins, grey are draws, red are Club Queretaro wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro
Guadalajara Chivas
- W3-0Pumas UNAM14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026
- W5-2Club Tijuana23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna17 August 2026
Club Queretaro
- W1-0away to Club Tijuana12 September 2026
- W3-1away to Atlas29 August 2026
- L1-2Toluca22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Pumas UNAM16 August 2026
- W3-2Tigres UANL1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 |
| 5 | Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Club Queretaro
Guadalajara Chivas
- R. Alvarado3 goals
Club Queretaro
- S. Homenchenko4 goals2 assists
- A. Ávila3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Guadalajara Chivas carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.68 for Club Queretaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.38 goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 1.17 for Club Queretaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guadalajara Chivas rate 1.21 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Queretaro rate 0.86 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guadalajara Chivas a 28.7% chance of the title and Club Queretaro 11.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas against 1.17 for Club Queretaro. Guadalajara Chivas's attack/defence rating is 1.21/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.21 for Club Queretaro.