Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 0-2 Club Queretaro.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Guadalajara Chivas, 28% draw, 23% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro
Line-ups
- 13Óscar WhalleyG
- 23D. AguirreD
- 3D. CampilloD
- 7L. RomoD
- 30Santiago SandovalM
- 6O. GoveaM
- 28R. GonzálezM
- 14H. CamberosM
- 19K. CastañedaM
- 11B. GutiérrezM
- 17R. MarínF
- 33J. CarrilloM
- 59C. IndaM
- 37R. LedezmaD
- 18J. PérezM
- 16L. ReyD
- 190Ángel Robinho RomeroG
- 9Á. SepúlvedaF
- 10E. ÁlvarezF
- 57J. HernándezF
- 25G. AllisonG
- 24B. DuarteD
- 13D. ReyesD
- 2L. AbasciaD
- 27D. ParraD
- 4Carlo AdrianoM
- 5S. HomenchenkoM
- 16E. GiménezM
- 11M. CoronelM
- 7Iker BenitoM
- 9A. ÁvilaF
- 30J. MartinezM
- 1J. HernándezG
- 29W. MadridM
- 17D. MuñozM
- 8B. ParraM
- 26E. PérezF
- 23J. RoblesM
- 15C. VillanuevaD
- 12Paulo VictorD
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro
Guadalajara Chivas
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Club America20 September 2026
- W3-0Pumas UNAM14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026
- W5-2Club Tijuana22 August 2026
Club Queretaro
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Leon21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Club Tijuana12 September 2026
- W3-1away to Atlas29 August 2026
- L1-2Toluca22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Pumas UNAM16 August 2026
What these results say
- Guadalajara Chivas went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Guadalajara Chivas had three goals or more.
- Club Queretaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 26 |
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro
- 17 January 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 23 October 2025Club Queretaro 1–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 1 February 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 17 July 2024Club Queretaro 0–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 21 April 2024Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Club Queretaro
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- S. Homenchenko52
- A. Ávila50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club Queretaro won 2–0 at Guadalajara Chivas. The model had leaned towards a win for Guadalajara Chivas at 49% and given a win for Club Queretaro 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ali Ávila 12' for Club Queretaro, Mateo Coronel 68' for Club Queretaro. Sent off: Omar Govea (Guadalajara Chivas) 90'.
How the call on Guadalajara Chivas v Club Queretaro has moved
First published on 12 Sep at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is Club Queretaro's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Guadalajara Chivas win49%▲ +1
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Club Queretaro win23%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.