12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result

MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Atletico Mineiro 3-1 Fluminense.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Atletico Mineiro, 29% draw, 33% Fluminense — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atletico Mineiro at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Mineiro99%Draw1%Fluminense0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alan Franco
19'
52'
Otávio
61'
🔁L. Acostaout: Hercules
61'
🔁A. Canobbioout: K. Serna
⚽Reinierassist: Cuello
61'
⚽Cuello
63'
🔁A. Francoout: Maycon
65'
🔁K. Castanoout: M. Cisse
65'
69'
Rodrigo Castillo
🔁Bernardout: Gustavo Scarpa
70'
🔁Cuelloout: Igor Gomes
70'
72'
🔁Otavioout: PH Ganso
72'
🔁J. Savarinoout: Riquelme Felipe
🔁Reinierout: M. Cassierra
78'
⚽Vitaoassist: M. Cassierra
81'
90+1'
🔁Julio Fidelisout: Jemmes
90'
⚽R. Castilloassist: K. Serna

Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense

48%Possession52%
15Shots9
7On target3
5Corners2
1.9xG0.55

Goals against chances

Atletico Mineiro3 from 1.90 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fluminense1 from 0.55 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Mineiro 4-2-3-1
  • 1Gabriel DelfimG
  • 2NatanaelD
  • 40VitaoD
  • 14Vitor HugoD
  • 36K. PasciniD
  • 21A. FrancoM
  • 15K. CastanoM
  • 28CuelloM
  • 7FredM
  • 11BernardM
  • 19ReinierF
Substitutes
  • 31RobertG
  • 23A. PreciadoD
  • 13LyancoD
  • 6R. LodiD
  • 5AlexsanderM
  • 10Gustavo ScarpaM
  • 8MayconM
  • 17Igor GomesM
  • 39M. CisseM
Coach: Eduardo Dominguez
Fluminense 4-4-2
  • 1FabioG
  • 46Julio FidelisD
  • 21Igor RabelloD
  • 22J. FreytesD
  • 13Guilherme AranaD
  • 17A. CanobbioM
  • 94OtavioM
  • 16NonatoM
  • 11J. SavarinoM
  • 19R. CastilloF
  • 32L. AcostaF
Substitutes
  • 98Vitor EudesG
  • 44JemmesD
  • 6ReneD
  • 29J. MillanD
  • 10PH GansoM
  • 8MartinelliM
  • 35HerculesM
  • 28Riquelme FelipeF
  • 41Ruan Sales
Coach: Marcao

Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Sao Paulo5 September 2026
  • W2-1Vitoria29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Internacional22 August 2026
  • W3-0Gremio16 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Remo8 August 2026

Fluminense

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Atletico Paranaense30 August 2026
  • W2-1Remo22 August 2026
  • W3-2Palmeiras15 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Botafogo9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Fluminense went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Fluminense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Atletico Mineiro33148114439+550
4Fluminense3315995242+1054

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense

  • 21 March 2026Fluminense 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 4 October 2025Fluminense 3–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 11 May 2025Atletico Mineiro 3–2 FluminenseSerie A
  • 25 September 2024Atletico Mineiro 2–0 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 18 September 2024Fluminense 1–0 Atletico MineiroCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 25 August 2024Atletico Mineiro 0–2 FluminenseSerie A

The full Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense record →

Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Fluminense

Atletico Mineiro

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

Fluminense

GoalsAssists

  • John Kennedy91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Mineiro beat Fluminense 3–1. The model had made a win for Atletico Mineiro its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Reinier 61' for Atletico Mineiro, Cuello 63' for Atletico Mineiro, Vitao 81' for Atletico Mineiro, R. Castillo 90' for Fluminense. On expected goals it finished 1.90–0.55.

How the call on Atletico Mineiro v Fluminense has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Atletico Mineiro's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Atletico Mineiro win38%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Fluminense win33%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.