Inter Miami vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Inter Miami 2-2 San Diego.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Inter Miami, 26% draw, 22% San Diego — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 52% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter Miami vs San Diego
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 97D. St.ClairG
- 4F. MuraD
- 5CasemiroD
- 37M. FalconD
- 15F. CaicedoD
- 7R. de PaulM
- 42Y. BrightM
- 80M. GalarzaM
- 10L. MessiF
- 9L. SuarezF
- 19G. BerterameF
- 34R. RiosG
- 3S. ReguilonD
- 16MicaelD
- 2G. LujanD
- 22D. AyalaM
- 20S. MoralesM
- 59P. PlambeckM
- 88A. ShawM
- 56D. PinterF
- 1dos Santos CJG
- 26M. DuahD
- 25I. PilcherD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 3D. ThorhallssonM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 5K. Sargeant
- 10A. DreyerF
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 97C. McVeyD
- 23S. VinesD
- 8O. ValakariM
- 70A. Alvarado JrF
- 19D. VazquezM
- 94C. BakambuF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 14B. B. ZambleF
Form going into Inter Miami vs San Diego
Inter Miami
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Chicago Fire10 September 2026
- D2-2Atlanta United FC5 September 2026
- W7-1CF Montreal29 August 2026
- L1-2Toronto FC22 August 2026
San Diego
All competitions we cover
- L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026
- L2-3San Jose Earthquakes10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC5 September 2026
- W3-1Los Angeles Galaxy30 August 2026
- W3-0Colorado Rapids23 August 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Inter Miami.
- San Diego conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Inter Miami | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 75 | 55 | +20 | 56 |
| 13 | San Diego | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 56 | 62 | -6 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and San Diego
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2512
- L. Suárez156
San Diego
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 56 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Inter Miami and San Diego drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Inter Miami at 52% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Dreyer 12' for San Diego, L. Messi 23' for Inter Miami, L. Suarez 75' for Inter Miami, A. Dreyer 82' for San Diego. On expected goals it finished 1.53–1.78.
How the call on Inter Miami v San Diego has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Inter Miami's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Inter Miami win52%▲ +6
- Draw26%▼ −2
- San Diego win22%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.