20 September 2026, 02:30 UTC

Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Providence Park, Portland
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Portland Timbers 0-1 Atlanta United FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Portland Timbers, 28% draw, 31% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Portland Timbers at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portland Timbers0%Draw5%Atlanta United FC95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Diego Chará
25'
28'
⚽A. Miranchuk
32'
🔁T. Jacobout: M. Edwards
Joel Waterman
45+1'
45+1'
Giuliano Galoppo
🔁Antonyout: V. Janssen
58'
64'
Tristan Muyumba
65'
🔁Giuliano Galoppoout: C. Sanchez
🔁J. Foryout: I. Smith
75'
🔁D. Charaout: J. Ortiz
75'
🔁C. Bassettout: O. Fernandez
75'
82'
🔁P. Diazout: E. Mihaj
82'
🔁T. Muyumbaout: A. Fortune
🔁R. Hernandezout: G. Guerra
85'

Match stats — Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC

53%Possession47%
19Shots10
3On target3
5Corners3
1.53xG0.73

Goals against chances

Portland Timbers0 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth
Atlanta United FC1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Portland Timbers 4-3-3
  • 41J. PantemisG
  • 12R. HernandezD
  • 20F. SurmanD
  • 2J. WatermanD
  • 27J. ForyD
  • 10D. Da CostaM
  • 21D. CharaM
  • 17C. BassettM
  • 7A. LassiterF
  • 11AntonyF
  • 99K. VeldeF
Substitutes
  • 26H. SulteG
  • 15E. MillerD
  • 6A. BonetigD
  • 4K. MillerD
  • 23I. SmithD
  • 80J. OrtizM
  • 14V. JanssenF
  • 88G. GuerraF
  • 22O. FernandezF
Coach: Jack Cassidy
Atlanta United FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. HoyosG
  • 55T. JacobD
  • 27P. DiazD
  • 6J. AlonsoD
  • 3E. BaezD
  • 14M. AmaroM
  • 8T. MuyumbaM
  • 59A. MiranchukM
  • 11Giuliano GaloppoM
  • 10M. AlmironM
  • 36B. EmboloF
Substitutes
  • 42J. HibbertG
  • 47M. EdwardsD
  • 4E. MihajD
  • 35A. FortuneM
  • 16A. GillM
  • 20L. BrennanM
  • 48C. SanchezM
  • 22F. PicaultF
  • 19Sergio SantosF
Coach: Gerardo Martino

Form going into Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC

Portland Timbers

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to FC Dallas13 September 2026
  • D2-2St. Louis City10 September 2026
  • W5-4Minnesota United FC6 September 2026
  • L1-2Austin30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Los Angeles FC23 August 2026

Atlanta United FC

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to DC United12 September 2026
  • L2-3Orlando City SC9 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Inter Miami5 September 2026
  • L0-2Charlotte29 August 2026
  • W2-1Sporting Kansas City23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Portland Timbers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Portland Timbers.
  • Atlanta United FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atlanta United FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Portland Timbers32117145760-340
14Atlanta United FC3286184056-1630

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC

  • 18 March 2023Atlanta United FC 5–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 4 September 2022Portland Timbers 2–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 19 August 2019Portland Timbers 0–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 9 December 2018Atlanta United FC 2–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 24 June 2018Atlanta United FC 1–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Atlanta United FC won 1–0 at Portland Timbers. The model had leaned towards a win for Portland Timbers at 41% and given a win for Atlanta United FC 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: A. Miranchuk 28' for Atlanta United FC. On expected goals it finished 1.53–0.73.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.