Club Queretaro vs Toluca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Queretaro 1-2 Toluca.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Club Queretaro, 23% draw, 29% Toluca — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Club Queretaro at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Queretaro vs Toluca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. AllisonG
- 24B. DuarteD
- 13D. ReyesD
- 2L. AbasciaD
- 27D. ParraD
- 4C. GarciaM
- 5S. HomenchenkoM
- 16E. GimenezM
- 20A. AlcalaM
- 12Paulo VictorM
- 9A. AvilaF
- 1J. HernandezG
- 29W. MadridM
- 22J. UnjanqueM
- 18E. DuenasM
- 8B. ParraM
- 30J. MartinezM
- 11M. CoronelF
- 26E. PerezF
- 7I. BenitoM
- 1H. GonzalezG
- 2D. BarbosaD
- 4Bruno MendezD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 25E. del VillarD
- 5F. RomeroM
- 24F. ArceM
- 11HelinhoM
- 10J. AnguloM
- 9A. VegaM
- 16F. VinasF
- 12R. BeltranG
- 13LuanD
- 3A. BrisenoD
- 17B. A. Garcia CaprizoD
- 35E. GutierrezM
- 7V. GuzmanM
- 8N. CastroM
- 15P. PerezM
- 29J. Diaz PriceM
Form going into Club Queretaro vs Toluca
Club Queretaro
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Pumas UNAM16 August 2026
- W3-2Tigres UANL1 August 2026
- W2-1away to CF Pachuca27 July 2026
- L0-1Club America19 July 2026
Toluca
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
- W3-1Necaxa3 August 2026
- L1-2Pumas UNAM22 July 2026
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas19 July 2026
What these results say
- Club Queretaro conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Toluca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 20 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs Toluca
- 4 April 2026Club Queretaro 1–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 18 October 2025Toluca 4–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 27 February 2025Toluca 5–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 19 October 2024Club Queretaro 0–1 TolucaLiga MX
- 13 January 2024Club Queretaro 2–2 TolucaLiga MX
- 8 October 2023Toluca 3–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Toluca
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- A. Ávila60
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas81
- Paulinho50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Toluca won 2–1 at Club Queretaro. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Queretaro at 48% and given a win for Toluca 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Helinho 65' for Toluca, S. Homenchenko 79' for Club Queretaro, F. Vinas (penalty) 90' for Toluca. Sent off: Diego Barbosa (Toluca) 31'. On expected goals it finished 1.70–1.47.