FC Juarez
vs
Club America
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 11% FC Juarez, 13% draw, 76% Club America — fair odds of 9.09, 7.69 and 1.32. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-3 (8%).
Expected goals: FC Juarez 1.39, Club America 3.49.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%, under 2.5: 14%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Juarez
- L1-5Pumas UNAM1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Guadalajara Chivas25 July 2026
- L0-1Puebla18 July 2026
Club America
- W3-0Santos Laguna2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Atlante FC25 July 2026
- W1-0away to Club Queretaro19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | FC Juarez | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 1 | Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
FC Juarez carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.82 for Club America. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Juarez L-L-L; Club America W-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for FC Juarez and 3.49 for Club America. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Juarez rate 0.63 in attack and 2.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club America rate 1.08 and 1.17.
That points to 86% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-3 (8%), 1-4 (7%), 1-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club America the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC Juarez against 3.49 for Club America. FC Juarez's attack/defence rating is 0.63/2.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/1.17 for Club America.