Udinese
vs
Como
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 41% Udinese, 23% draw, 36% Como — fair odds of 2.44, 4.35 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Udinese 1.86, Como 1.76.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Udinese vs Como
- 6 April 2026Udinese 0–0 ComoSerie A
- 3 January 2026Como 1–0 UdineseSerie A
- 20 January 2025Como 4–1 UdineseSerie A
- 1 September 2024Udinese 1–0 ComoSerie A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Udinese carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.99 for Como. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Udinese and 1.76 for Como. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Udinese rate 1.07 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Como rate 1.22 and 0.92.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Udinese the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Udinese against 1.76 for Como. Udinese's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.92 for Como.