Udinese vs Como Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Udinese 1-1 Como.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Udinese, 23% draw, 36% Como — fair odds of 2.44, 4.35 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Udinese at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Udinese vs Como
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40M. OkoyeG
- 14J. AbankwahD
- 16M. PalmaD
- 28O. SoletD
- 23M. VojvodaM
- 8J. KarlstromM
- 24J. PiotrowskiM
- 11H. KamaraM
- 10N. ZanioloF
- 32J. EkkelenkampF
- 7I. GueyeF
- 93D. PadelliG
- 99E. PianaG
- 77E. EbosseD
- 13N. BertolaD
- 2S. GoglichidzeD
- 4S. LovricM
- 38L. MillerM
- 46U. GomezM
- 79D. PejicicM
- 1J. ButezG
- 27Y. CoutoD
- 4J. RamonD
- 99T. ChalobahD
- 3A. ValleD
- 5M. PerroneM
- 6L. MillaM
- 10N. PazM
- 20M. BaturinaM
- 17J. RodriguezM
- 9A. DouvikasF
- 22M. VigoritoG
- 21N. TornqvistG
- 12E. AuderoG
- 13A. DossenaD
- 28I. SmolcicD
- 16KaikiD
- 2M. O. KempfD
- 18E. GoldanigaD
- 30M. LiberaliM
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
| 5 | Como | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Udinese vs Como
- 6 April 2026Udinese 0–0 ComoSerie A
- 3 January 2026Como 1–0 UdineseSerie A
- 20 January 2025Como 4–1 UdineseSerie A
- 1 September 2024Udinese 1–0 ComoSerie A
Leading scorers: Udinese and Como
Udinese
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Udinese and Como drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Udinese at 41% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: H. Kamara 29' for Udinese, A. Douvikas 54' for Como. On expected goals it finished 1.98–1.49.