Leon
vs
Monterrey
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 45% Leon, 26% draw, 29% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Leon 1.60, Monterrey 1.24.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Leon
- W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026
- W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
- L2-3Atlas18 July 2026
Monterrey
- W6-1FC Juarez16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Atlas2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa26 July 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Leon | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Leon vs Monterrey
- 15 February 2026Monterrey 1–0 LeonLiga MX
- 12 August 2025Leon 1–3 MonterreyLiga MX
- 21 April 2025Leon 0–2 MonterreyLiga MX
- 11 November 2024Monterrey 2–1 LeonLiga MX
- 20 April 2024Leon 2–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 17 September 2023Monterrey 3–1 LeonLiga MX
Leading scorers
Leon
- D. Arcila2 goals
Monterrey
- L. Ocampos5 goals1 assists
- D. Rossi2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leon carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.62 for Monterrey. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Leon L-L-W-W; Monterrey W-L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Leon and 1.24 for Monterrey. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leon rate 0.70 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monterrey rate 0.77 and 1.21.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Monterrey, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 941 settled predictions (48%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leon the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for Leon against 1.24 for Monterrey. Leon's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.21 for Monterrey.