Leon vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Leon 2-0 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Leon, 26% draw, 29% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leon at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leon vs Monterrey
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23O. GarciaG
- 4B. ColulaD
- 14J. RomanaD
- 3J. GuevaraD
- 5S. VegasD
- 29I. RodriguezM
- 16J. CortizoM
- 35L. ValadezM
- 6F. Beltran Cruz
- 13D. ArcilaM
- 27D. CambindoF
- 12J. GonzalezG
- 185C. Mora
- 26S. ReyesM
- 25P. BellonD
- 8J. P. Dominguez ChontecoM
- 22S. SantosM
- 203J. LaraD
- 7I. MorenoD
- 11I. DiazF
- 22L. CardenasG
- 2R. ChavezD
- 4V. GuzmanD
- 30J. RodriguezD
- 3G. ArteagaD
- 5F. AmbrizM
- 25O. PinedaM
- 9D. RossiM
- 7L. OcamposM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 31C. RamosG
- 21L. ReyesD
- 14E. AguirreM
- 11I. FimbresM
- 18C. GarzaM
- 8O. TorresM
- 200O. GalvezM
- 27R. de la RosaF
- 10L. OrellanoF
Form going into Leon vs Monterrey
Leon
- W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026
- W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
- L2-3Atlas18 July 2026
Monterrey
- W6-1FC Juarez16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Atlas2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa26 July 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna19 July 2026
What these results say
- Leon scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Leon conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Monterrey scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Monterrey won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Monterrey conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leon vs Monterrey
- 15 February 2026Monterrey 1–0 LeonLiga MX
- 12 August 2025Leon 1–3 MonterreyLiga MX
- 21 April 2025Leon 0–2 MonterreyLiga MX
- 11 November 2024Monterrey 2–1 LeonLiga MX
- 20 April 2024Leon 2–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 17 September 2023Monterrey 3–1 LeonLiga MX
Leading scorers: Leon and Monterrey
Leon
- D. Arcila4 goals
- D. Cambindo3 goals1 assist
Monterrey
- L. Ocampos5 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.