Levski Sofia
vs
Spartak Varna
First League prediction
The model makes it 40% Levski Sofia, 32% draw, 28% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 1.12, Spartak Varna 0.90.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Levski Sofia
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 August 2026
- W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026
Spartak Varna
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv3 August 2026
- W3-0away to Cherno More Varna26 July 2026
- D2-2CSKA 194817 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | Spartak Varna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Levski Sofia carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.65 for Spartak Varna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Levski Sofia W-W-W-W; Spartak Varna D-W-W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Levski Sofia and 0.90 for Spartak Varna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levski Sofia rate 0.58 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Varna rate 0.65 and 1.02.
That points to 33% for over two and a half goals and 41% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Levski Sofia against 0.9 for Spartak Varna. Levski Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.58/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.02 for Spartak Varna.