Tigres UANL
vs
Atlante FC
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 61% Tigres UANL, 21% draw, 18% Atlante FC — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Tigres UANL 2.07, Atlante FC 1.03.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Tigres UANL
- L2-3away to Club Queretaro1 August 2026
- D2-2Atletico San Luis26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Club Tijuana17 July 2026
Atlante FC
- W3-2away to Cruz Azul2 August 2026
- D1-1Club America25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Atlante FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Tigres UANL
No league goals recorded yet.
Atlante FC
- E. Pizzuto2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Tigres UANL carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.48 for Atlante FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Tigres UANL L-D-L; Atlante FC L-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.03 for Atlante FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tigres UANL rate 0.73 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlante FC rate 0.71 and 1.50.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Atlante FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tigres UANL the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Tigres UANL against 1.03 for Atlante FC. Tigres UANL's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.5 for Atlante FC.