Regular Season - 8 · 21 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Club Africain vs ES Tunis Ligue 1 prediction

Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Our model says: Club Africain 2–1 ES Tunis

The model makes it 44% Club Africain, 26% draw, 30% ES Tunis — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Club Africain 1.71, ES Tunis 1.32.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Club Africain's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and ES Tunis's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Club Africain are 4th on 13 points from 7 games; ES Tunis are 2nd on 16 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
  • Club Africain have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer.
  • ES Tunis are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to US Monastirienne.
  • Last 6 meetings: ES Tunis 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended ES Tunis 0–1 Club Africain.

More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions

All Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Club Africain vs ES Tunis

60%
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Club Africain win Draw ES Tunis win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 1–27%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Club Africain first; the other scorelines share the remaining 46%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Club Africain at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Club Africain vs ES Tunis

Club Africain

Ligue 1

  • D0-0away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer7 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Stade Tunisien3 November 2026
  • W3-2CA Bizertin29 October 2026
  • L1-2away to US Ben Guerdane10 October 2026
  • W1-0ES Zarzis20 September 2026

ES Tunis

Ligue 1

  • W1-0US Monastirienne7 November 2026
  • D0-0away to CS Sfaxien29 October 2026
  • W3-1Olympique Béja10 October 2026
  • W1-0away to CS Hammam-Lif13 September 2026
  • W2-1AS Marsa6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Club Africain scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ES Tunis went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • ES Tunis won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ES Tunis scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Tunisia Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Club Africain741286+213
2ES Tunis7511117+416

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Club Africain

Chance to finish in the top two · 28% today

Win 39%
Draw 21%
Defeat 13%

ES Tunis

Chance to finish in the top two · 57% today

Win 78%
Draw 60%
Defeat 45%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Club Africain vs ES Tunis

  • 10 May 2026ES Tunis 0–1 Club AfricainLigue 1
  • 9 November 2025Club Africain 0–0 ES TunisLigue 1
  • 20 April 2025Club Africain 1–3 ES TunisLigue 1
  • 22 December 2024ES Tunis 2–2 Club AfricainLigue 1
  • 2 June 2024Club Africain 1–2 ES TunisLigue 1
  • 16 March 2024ES Tunis 1–0 Club AfricainLigue 1

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour ES Tunis (second, with Club Africain fourth), while our numbers lean to Club Africain. Club Africain rate 0.73 in attack and 1.40 in defence, ES Tunis 0.78 and 1.44 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Africain a 12.7% chance of the title and ES Tunis 35.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Club Africain ES Tunis
0.73 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.78
1.4 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.44
1.71 Model expected goals (this match) 1.32

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Club Africain the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Club Africain against 1.32 for ES Tunis. Club Africain's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.44 for ES Tunis.

Club Africain carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.55 for ES Tunis. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 44% for Club Africain to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club Africain to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Club Africain's ratings take away 1 point and ES Tunis's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Club Africain's ratings44%−1
  5. ES Tunis's ratings44%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Club AfricainES Tunis
7Matches7
4W 1D 2LRecord5W 1D 1L
8 1.1 per gameGoals scored11 1.6 per game
6 0.9 per gameGoals conceded7 1.0 per game
4 of 7Clean sheets3 of 7
1 of 7Failed to score1 of 7
–Penalties scored0 of 1
16 2.3 per gameYellow cards14 2.0 per game
1Red cards1

Club Africain at home · ES Tunis away

3Played3
3W 0D 0LRecord1W 1D 1L
5–2Goals for – against2–3
2 of 3Clean sheets2 of 3

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: Club Africain 7, ES Tunis 7.

Club Africain scored 131202
ES Tunis conceded 101401

Club Africain score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); ES Tunis have let in 0 there.

ES Tunis scored 310322
Club Africain conceded 011003

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Club Africain

  • at ES Sahel28 Nov · Ligue 1win 45%
  • vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane5 Dec · Ligue 1win 59%
  • at AS Marsa12 Dec · Ligue 1win 41%
  • vs CS Hammam-Lif19 Dec · Ligue 1win 59%
  • at Olympique Béja26 Dec · Ligue 1win 51%

ES Tunis

  • vs ES Hammam-Sousse28 Nov · Ligue 1win 77%
  • at Stade Tunisien5 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
  • vs ES Zarzis12 Dec · Ligue 1win 60%
  • at US Ben Guerdane19 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
  • vs CA Bizertin26 Dec · Ligue 1win 63%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.