Olympique Béja
vs
AS Marsa
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Olympique Béja 1–2 AS Marsa
The model makes it 36% Olympique Béja, 27% draw, 37% AS Marsa — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Olympique Béja 1.43, AS Marsa 1.46.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Olympique Béja and AS Marsa are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Olympique Béja's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and AS Marsa's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Olympique Béja are 15th on 3 points from 7 games; AS Marsa are 11th on 6 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Olympique Béja have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane.
- AS Marsa are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to CS Hammam-Lif.
- Last 5 meetings: Olympique Béja 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended AS Marsa 1–0 Olympique Béja.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa
Has the model earned this number?
AS Marsa at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa
Olympique Béja
Ligue 1
- D0-0away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane23 October 2026
- L1-2ES Sahel18 October 2026
- L1-3away to ES Tunis10 October 2026
- D1-1Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer13 September 2026
- D1-1away to CA Bizertin5 September 2026
AS Marsa
Ligue 1
- D1-1CS Hammam-Lif23 October 2026
- W3-0ES Metlaoui18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane11 October 2026
- W1-0ES Sahel12 September 2026
- L1-2away to ES Tunis6 September 2026
What these results say
- Olympique Béja did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Olympique Béja scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympique Béja conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AS Marsa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Olympique Béja | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Olympique Béja
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 66% today
AS Marsa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa
- 3 April 2026AS Marsa 1–0 Olympique BéjaLigue 1
- 4 October 2025Olympique Béja 0–6 AS MarsaLigue 1
- 22 June 2024Olympique Béja 3–2 AS MarsaCup
- 26 May 2024AS Marsa 0–3 Olympique BéjaLigue 1
- 3 March 2024Olympique Béja 3–0 AS MarsaLigue 1
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Marsa the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Olympique Béja against 1.46 for AS Marsa. Olympique Béja's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.72 for AS Marsa.
How the model reaches 37% for AS Marsa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AS Marsa to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Olympique Béja's ratings add 4 points and AS Marsa's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Olympique Béja's ratings33%+4
- AS Marsa's ratings37%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Olympique Béja at home · AS Marsa away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Olympique Béja 7, AS Marsa 7.
Olympique Béja score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); AS Marsa have let in 0 there.
AS Marsa score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Olympique Béja have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Olympique Béja
- at CS Hammam-Lif28 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
- vs ES Metlaoui5 Dec · Ligue 1win 44%
- vs CS Sfaxien12 Dec · Ligue 1win 22%
- at US Monastirienne19 Dec · Ligue 1win 17%
- vs Club Africain26 Dec · Ligue 1win 24%
AS Marsa
- vs CS Sfaxien28 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
- at US Monastirienne5 Dec · Ligue 1win 23%
- vs Club Africain12 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
- at ES Hammam-Sousse19 Dec · Ligue 1win 44%
- vs Stade Tunisien26 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.