US Monastirienne
vs
ES Sahel
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: US Monastirienne 2–1 ES Sahel
The model makes it 55% US Monastirienne, 24% draw, 21% ES Sahel — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: US Monastirienne 2.08, ES Sahel 1.08.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to US Monastirienne: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. US Monastirienne's rating is built from 37 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and ES Sahel's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- US Monastirienne are 5th on 12 points from 7 games; ES Sahel are 10th on 8 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- US Monastirienne have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to ES Tunis.
- ES Sahel have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to CS Sfaxien.
- Last 6 meetings: ES Sahel 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended ES Sahel 1–0 US Monastirienne.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: US Monastirienne vs ES Sahel
Has the model earned this number?
US Monastirienne at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into US Monastirienne vs ES Sahel
US Monastirienne
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to ES Tunis7 November 2026
- W1-0Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer18 October 2026
- D0-0away to CA Bizertin10 October 2026
- W2-1away to ES Zarzis16 September 2026
- D3-3US Ben Guerdane12 September 2026
ES Sahel
Ligue 1
- D1-1CS Sfaxien7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Olympique Béja18 October 2026
- L0-1CS Hammam-Lif11 October 2026
- L0-1away to AS Marsa12 September 2026
- D1-1Jeunesse Sportive Omrane6 September 2026
What these results say
- ES Sahel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- ES Sahel failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for ES Sahel had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | US Monastirienne | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 10 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
US Monastirienne
Chance to finish in the top two · 11% today
ES Sahel
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: US Monastirienne vs ES Sahel
- 7 February 2026ES Sahel 1–0 US MonastirienneLigue 1
- 13 September 2025US Monastirienne 1–1 ES SahelLigue 1
- 2 February 2025ES Sahel 1–0 US MonastirienneLigue 1
- 26 September 2024US Monastirienne 1–0 ES SahelLigue 1
- 4 May 2024ES Sahel 0–0 US MonastirienneLigue 1
- 6 March 2024US Monastirienne 0–0 ES SahelLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives US Monastirienne a 3.3% chance of the title and ES Sahel 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives US Monastirienne the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for US Monastirienne against 1.08 for ES Sahel. US Monastirienne's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/2.06 for ES Sahel.
How the model reaches 55% for US Monastirienne to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for US Monastirienne to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, US Monastirienne's ratings add 4 points and ES Sahel's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- US Monastirienne's ratings49%+4
- ES Sahel's ratings55%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
US Monastirienne at home · ES Sahel away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: US Monastirienne 7, ES Sahel 7.
ES Sahel score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); US Monastirienne have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
US Monastirienne
- at Jeunesse Sportive Omrane28 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs AS Marsa5 Dec · Ligue 1win 51%
- at CS Hammam-Lif12 Dec · Ligue 1win 37%
- vs Olympique Béja19 Dec · Ligue 1win 61%
- at CS Sfaxien26 Dec · Ligue 1win 22%
ES Sahel
- vs Club Africain28 Nov · Ligue 1win 30%
- at ES Hammam-Sousse5 Dec · Ligue 1win 43%
- vs Stade Tunisien12 Dec · Ligue 1win 33%
- at ES Zarzis19 Dec · Ligue 1win 27%
- vs US Ben Guerdane26 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.