Regular Season - 8 · 21 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

CS Hammam-Lif vs ES Metlaoui Ligue 1 prediction

Stade Municipal de Hammam-Lif, Hammam-Lif

Our model says: CS Hammam-Lif 1–0 ES Metlaoui

The model makes it 47% CS Hammam-Lif, 28% draw, 25% ES Metlaoui — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: CS Hammam-Lif 1.54, ES Metlaoui 0.97.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. CS Hammam-Lif's rating is built from 7 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and ES Metlaoui's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • CS Hammam-Lif are 14th on 5 points from 7 games; ES Metlaoui are 12th on 6 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
  • CS Hammam-Lif are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to AS Marsa.
  • ES Metlaoui have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to ES Zarzis.
  • Last 6 meetings: all 6 drawn; the most recent, 10 April 2022, ended CS Hammam-Lif 0–0 Etoile S. Metlaoui.

More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions

All Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: CS Hammam-Lif vs ES Metlaoui

49%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

CS Hammam-Lif win Draw ES Metlaoui win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read CS Hammam-Lif first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

CS Hammam-Lif at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into CS Hammam-Lif vs ES Metlaoui

CS Hammam-Lif

Ligue 1

  • D1-1away to AS Marsa23 October 2026
  • D1-1Jeunesse Sportive Omrane18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to ES Sahel11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to US Ben Guerdane20 September 2026
  • L0-1ES Tunis13 September 2026

ES Metlaoui

Ligue 1

  • W2-1ES Zarzis8 November 2026
  • L0-3away to AS Marsa18 October 2026
  • L1-2Stade Tunisien11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane13 September 2026
  • W1-0ES Hammam-Sousse6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for CS Hammam-Lif had two goals or fewer.
  • CS Hammam-Lif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • CS Hammam-Lif conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ES Metlaoui conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Tunisia Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14CS Hammam-Lif712436-35
12ES Metlaoui7205510-56

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

CS Hammam-Lif

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today

Win 14%
Draw 31%
Defeat 41%

ES Metlaoui

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 49% today

Win 27%
Draw 46%
Defeat 60%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: CS Hammam-Lif vs ES Metlaoui

  • 10 April 2022CS Hammam-Lif 0–0 Etoile S. MetlaouiLigue 1
  • 18 November 2021Etoile S. Metlaoui 2–2 CS Hammam-LifLigue 1
  • 22 August 2020Etoile S. Metlaoui 1–1 CS Hammam-LifLigue 1
  • 10 November 2019CS Hammam-Lif 0–0 Etoile S. MetlaouiLigue 1
  • 21 April 2019CS Hammam-Lif 1–1 Etoile S. MetlaouiLigue 1
  • 4 November 2018Etoile S. Metlaoui 1–1 CS Hammam-LifLigue 1

Leading scorers: CS Hammam-Lif and ES Metlaoui

CS Hammam-Lif

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

ES Metlaoui

GoalsAssists

  • Mohamed Bouzaabya10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour ES Metlaoui (12th, with CS Hammam-Lif 14th), while our numbers lean to CS Hammam-Lif. CS Hammam-Lif rate 0.47 in attack and 1.64 in defence, ES Metlaoui 0.49 and 2.01 (lower is better in defence), so CS Hammam-Lif have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

How the call on CS Hammam-Lif v ES Metlaoui has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 48% / 29% / 23% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is ES Metlaoui's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. CS Hammam-Lif win47%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. ES Metlaoui win25%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

CS Hammam-Lif ES Metlaoui
0.47 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.64 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.01
1.54 Model expected goals (this match) 0.97

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives CS Hammam-Lif the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for CS Hammam-Lif against 0.97 for ES Metlaoui. CS Hammam-Lif's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.01 for ES Metlaoui.

CS Hammam-Lif carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.14 for ES Metlaoui. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 47% for CS Hammam-Lif to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CS Hammam-Lif to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, CS Hammam-Lif's ratings add 1 point and ES Metlaoui's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. CS Hammam-Lif's ratings44%+1
  5. ES Metlaoui's ratings47%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CS Hammam-LifES Metlaoui
7Matches7
1W 2D 4LRecord2W 0D 5L
3 0.4 per gameGoals scored5 0.7 per game
6 0.9 per gameGoals conceded10 1.4 per game
1 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7
4 of 7Failed to score3 of 7
1 of 1Penalties scored–
14 2.0 per gameYellow cards8 1.1 per game
2Red cards0

CS Hammam-Lif at home · ES Metlaoui away

3Played3
0W 1D 2LRecord0W 0D 3L
1–3Goals for – against1–6
0 of 3Clean sheets0 of 3

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: CS Hammam-Lif 7, ES Metlaoui 7.

CS Hammam-Lif scored 110100
ES Metlaoui conceded 003016
ES Metlaoui scored 001021
CS Hammam-Lif conceded 111201

ES Metlaoui score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); CS Hammam-Lif have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

CS Hammam-Lif

  • vs Olympique Béja28 Nov · Ligue 1win 49%
  • at CS Sfaxien5 Dec · Ligue 1win 15%
  • vs US Monastirienne12 Dec · Ligue 1win 33%
  • at Club Africain19 Dec · Ligue 1win 17%
  • vs ES Hammam-Sousse26 Dec · Ligue 1win 56%

ES Metlaoui

  • vs US Ben Guerdane28 Nov · Ligue 1win 30%
  • at Olympique Béja5 Dec · Ligue 1win 30%
  • vs CA Bizertin12 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
  • at CS Sfaxien19 Dec · Ligue 1win 12%
  • vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer26 Dec · Ligue 1win 29%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.