Stade Tunisien
vs
CA Bizertin
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Stade Tunisien 2–1 CA Bizertin
The model makes it 57% Stade Tunisien, 23% draw, 20% CA Bizertin — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Stade Tunisien 2.13, CA Bizertin 1.04.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Stade Tunisien: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Stade Tunisien's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and CA Bizertin's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Stade Tunisien are 3rd on 13 points from 7 games; CA Bizertin are 7th on 11 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Stade Tunisien have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Club Africain.
- CA Bizertin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Club Africain.
- Last 6 meetings: Stade Tunisien 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Stade Tunisien 1–1 CA Bizertin.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stade Tunisien vs CA Bizertin
Has the model earned this number?
Stade Tunisien at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stade Tunisien vs CA Bizertin
Stade Tunisien
Ligue 1
- W2-1Club Africain3 November 2026
- W1-0ES Zarzis29 October 2026
- L0-1away to US Ben Guerdane23 October 2026
- W2-1away to ES Metlaoui11 October 2026
- W3-1away to ES Hammam-Sousse12 September 2026
CA Bizertin
Ligue 1
- L2-3away to Club Africain29 October 2026
- W3-1ES Hammam-Sousse23 October 2026
- D0-0US Monastirienne10 October 2026
- L0-2away to CS Sfaxien20 September 2026
- D1-1Olympique Béja5 September 2026
What these results say
- Stade Tunisien won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stade Tunisien scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stade Tunisien conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CA Bizertin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- CA Bizertin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Stade Tunisien | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | CA Bizertin | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stade Tunisien
Chance to finish in the top two · 21% today
CA Bizertin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Stade Tunisien vs CA Bizertin
- 11 April 2026Stade Tunisien 1–1 CA BizertinLigue 1
- 22 October 2025CA Bizertin 0–2 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 11 February 2025CA Bizertin 1–1 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 3 October 2024Stade Tunisien 1–0 CA BizertinLigue 1
- 30 June 2024Stade Tunisien 2–0 CA BizertinCup
- 8 May 2023CA Bizertin 0–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stade Tunisien a 9.1% chance of the title and CA Bizertin 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Tunisien the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Stade Tunisien against 1.04 for CA Bizertin. Stade Tunisien's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.9 for CA Bizertin.
How the model reaches 57% for Stade Tunisien to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stade Tunisien to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Stade Tunisien's ratings add 6 points and CA Bizertin's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Stade Tunisien's ratings51%+6
- CA Bizertin's ratings57%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Stade Tunisien at home · CA Bizertin away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Stade Tunisien 7, CA Bizertin 7.
Stade Tunisien score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); CA Bizertin have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Stade Tunisien
- at Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer28 Nov · Ligue 1win 30%
- vs ES Tunis5 Dec · Ligue 1win 40%
- at ES Sahel12 Dec · Ligue 1win 41%
- vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane19 Dec · Ligue 1win 55%
- at AS Marsa26 Dec · Ligue 1win 37%
CA Bizertin
- vs ES Zarzis28 Nov · Ligue 1win 43%
- at US Ben Guerdane5 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
- at ES Metlaoui12 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer19 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- at ES Tunis26 Dec · Ligue 1win 16%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.