ES Hammam-Sousse
vs
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ES Hammam-Sousse 0–1 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
The model makes it 23% ES Hammam-Sousse, 28% draw, 49% Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer — fair odds of 4.35, 3.57 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: ES Hammam-Sousse 0.86, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1.52.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
One-sided: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. ES Hammam-Sousse's rating is built from 7 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ES Hammam-Sousse are bottom on 1 point from 7 games; Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer are 6th on 12 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- ES Hammam-Sousse have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to CA Bizertin.
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Club Africain.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ES Hammam-Sousse vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Has the model earned this number?
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ES Hammam-Sousse vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
ES Hammam-Sousse
Ligue 1
- L1-3away to CA Bizertin23 October 2026
- L0-2US Ben Guerdane17 October 2026
- L0-2away to ES Zarzis11 October 2026
- L1-3Stade Tunisien12 September 2026
- L0-1away to ES Metlaoui6 September 2026
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Ligue 1
- D0-0Club Africain7 November 2026
- L0-1away to US Monastirienne18 October 2026
- W1-0CS Sfaxien10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Olympique Béja13 September 2026
- W1-0CS Hammam-Lif5 September 2026
What these results say
- ES Hammam-Sousse did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ES Hammam-Sousse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
| 6 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ES Hammam-Sousse
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 94% today
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Chance to finish in the top two · 10% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: ES Hammam-Sousse vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
- 29 May 2026ES Hammam-Sousse 2–3 Progrès Sakiet EddaïerLigue 2
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ES Hammam-Sousse a 0% chance of the title and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on ES Hammam-Sousse v Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 22% / 27% / 51% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 23% / 28% / 49%: the biggest move is Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- ES Hammam-Sousse win23%▲ +1
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win49%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.86 expected goals for ES Hammam-Sousse against 1.52 for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer. ES Hammam-Sousse's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.23 for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer.
How the model reaches 49% for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, ES Hammam-Sousse's ratings add 11 points and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- ES Hammam-Sousse's ratings39%+11
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer's ratings49%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
ES Hammam-Sousse at home · Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Hammam-Sousse 7, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 7.
ES Hammam-Sousse score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have let in 1 there.
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); ES Hammam-Sousse have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
ES Hammam-Sousse
- at ES Tunis28 Nov · Ligue 1win 8%
- vs ES Sahel5 Dec · Ligue 1win 31%
- at Jeunesse Sportive Omrane12 Dec · Ligue 1win 17%
- vs AS Marsa19 Dec · Ligue 1win 29%
- at CS Hammam-Lif26 Dec · Ligue 1win 19%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
- vs Stade Tunisien28 Nov · Ligue 1win 40%
- at ES Zarzis5 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- vs US Ben Guerdane12 Dec · Ligue 1win 42%
- at CA Bizertin19 Dec · Ligue 1win 36%
- at ES Metlaoui26 Dec · Ligue 1win 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.