Deportivo Pereira
vs
Deportes Tolima
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Pereira 0–1 Deportes Tolima
The model makes it 27% Deportivo Pereira, 32% draw, 41% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 3.70, 3.13 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Pereira 0.83, Deportes Tolima 1.15.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
One-sided: Deportes Tolima are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Deportivo Pereira's rating is built from 72 Colombian Primera A matches and Deportes Tolima's from 92, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,222 matches.
Key facts
- Deportivo Pereira are 18th on 10 points from 13 games; Deportes Tolima are 8th on 20 points from 15 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Pereira have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Junior.
- Deportes Tolima have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Águilas Doradas.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportes Tolima 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Deportes Tolima 2–0 Deportivo Pereira.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Tolima at 41% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pereira
- D1-1away to Junior14 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Cali10 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
- L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026
- D0-0Internacional de Bogota26 September 2026
Deportes Tolima
- L1-2away to Águilas Doradas18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Jaguares11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Nacional8 October 2026
- D0-0Chico3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza FC27 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pereira did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportes Tolima did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 10 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima
- 18 April 2026Deportes Tolima 2–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 25 July 2025Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 14 February 2025Deportivo Pereira 0–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 8 October 2024Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 23 March 2024Deportes Tolima 2–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 6 September 2023Deportes Tolima 2–3 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pereira and Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra94
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportivo Pereira carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.54 for Deportes Tolima. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.83 goals for Deportivo Pereira and 1.15 for Deportes Tolima. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Pereira rate 0.46 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportes Tolima rate 0.66 and 1.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes Tolima the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Deportivo Pereira against 1.15 for Deportes Tolima. Deportivo Pereira's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.25 for Deportes Tolima.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Pereira at home · Deportes Tolima away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Pereira 32, Deportes Tolima 37.
Deportes Tolima score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Deportivo Pereira have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Pereira
- at Atletico Nacional7 Nov · Primera Awin 9%
- vs America de Cali12 Nov · Primera Awin 21%
Deportes Tolima
- vs Millonarios7 Nov · Primera Awin 38%
- at Deportivo Cali12 Nov · Primera Awin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.