10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern Super League prediction & result

AIL Arena, Lugano
Referee: Anojen Kanagasingam, Switzerland
Full time4 – 0

Final score: FC Lugano 4-0 FC Luzern.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% FC Lugano, 21% draw, 15% FC Luzern — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Lugano at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Behruzjon Karimov
4'
⚽Daniel Dos Santos Correiaassist: Lars Lukas Mai
12'
Daniel Dos Santos Correia
15'
Renato Steffen
35'
43'
Stefan Knezevic
🔁Lars Lukas Maiout: Martim Marques
45'
45'
🔁Bung Hua Freimannout: Pius Dorn
🔁Albian Ajetiout: Beckham Castro
57'
🔁Renato Steffenout: Dereck Moncada
57'
⚽Rúben Dantas Fernandes (OG)
61'
66'
Leonardo Bertone
67'
🔁Tyron Owusuout: Nando Toggenburger
67'
🔁Daniel Mikołajewskiout: Lars Villiger
•Behruzjon Karimov
69'
🔁Behruzjon Karimovout: Damian Kelvin
74'
⚽Daniel Dos Santos Correiaassist: Beckham Castro
78'
79'
🔁Oscar Kabwit Tshikombout: Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
🔁Daniel Dos Santos Correiaout: Ahmed Kendouci
83'
83'
🔁Mio Zimmermannout: Levin Winkler
⚽Dereck Moncadaassist: David von Ballmoos
87'

Match stats — FC Lugano vs FC Luzern

60%Possession40%
19Shots15
7On target4
8Corners7
2.64xG0.95

Goals against chances

FC Lugano4 from 2.64 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Luzern0 from 0.95 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Lugano 3-5-2
  • 16D. von BallmoosG
  • 6A. PapadopoulosD
  • 17L. MaiD
  • 3H. DelcroixD
  • 2B. KarimovM
  • 8A. GrgićM
  • 21Y. CimignaniM
  • 27Daniel Dos SantosM
  • 46M. ZanottiM
  • 11R. SteffenF
  • 9A. AjetiF
Substitutes
  • 28F. GebhardtG
  • 7E. AlioskiD
  • 18J. BichselD
  • 26Martim MarquesD
  • 4D. KelvinD
  • 14A. KendouciM
  • 30D. MoncadaF
  • 22B. CastroF
  • 91K. BehrensF
Coach: M. Croci-Torti
FC Luzern 4-2-2-2
  • 30K. LeticaG
  • 13B. FreimannD
  • 5S. KneževićD
  • 46B. FreimannD
  • 22R. FernandesD
  • 80Mio ZimmermannM
  • 6L. BertoneM
  • 24T. OwusuM
  • 11M. Di GiustoM
  • 16O. tshikombF
  • 19D. MikołajewskiF
Substitutes
  • 1S. SimoniG
  • 20P. DornD
  • 21L. LüthiD
  • 10Lucas FerreiraM
  • 29Levin WinklerM
  • 7A. OehlersF
  • 27L. VilligerF
  • 9A. GrbićF
  • 15N. ToggenburgerF
Coach: J. Portmann

Form going into FC Lugano vs FC Luzern

FC Lugano

Super League

  • W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026

FC Luzern

Super League

  • W5-1Grasshoppers19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Lugano1311113615+2134
9FC Luzern133462128-713

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC Luzern

  • 7 March 2026FC Lugano 1–3 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 17 January 2026FC Luzern 2–5 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 30 October 2025FC Lugano 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 4 May 2025FC Luzern 0–2 FC LuganoSuper League
  • 15 February 2025FC Lugano 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FC Luzern

FC Lugano

GoalsAssists

  • Daniel Dos Santos51
  • D. Moncada51
  • Y. Cimignani40

FC Luzern

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mikołajewski43
  • M. Di Giusto43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Lugano beat FC Luzern 4–0. The model had made a win for FC Lugano its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Daniel Dos Santos Correia 12' for FC Lugano, Rúben Dantas Fernandes (own goal) 61' for FC Lugano, Daniel Dos Santos Correia 78' for FC Lugano, Dereck Moncada 87' for FC Lugano. On expected goals it finished 2.64–0.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Lugano a 81.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 84.6% after a win, 77.0% after a draw, 71.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 84.6%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

For FC Luzern the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 24.4% going in: 36.7% after a win, 26.9% after a draw, 21.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.5%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Lugano v FC Luzern has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 57% / 24% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 64% / 21% / 15%: the biggest move is FC Lugano's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. FC Lugano win64%▲ +7
  2. Draw21%▼ −3
  3. FC Luzern win15%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.