10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Zurich vs FC Thun Super League prediction & result

Letzigrund Stadion
Referee: Hajrim Qovanaj
Full time4 – 2

Final score: FC Zurich 4-2 FC Thun.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% FC Zurich, 25% draw, 40% FC Thun — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Thun at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Zurich99%Draw1%FC Thun0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽Simon Lengen
⚽Kevin Spadanudaassist: Umeh Emmanuel
30'
⚽Bledian Krasniqi
37'
40'
A. Ilic
56'
Simon Lengen
57'
🔁Simon Lengenout: Noah Christoffersson
57'
🔁A. Ilicout: Nils·Reichmuth
⚽Doron Lichtensteinassist: Kevin Spadanuda
64'
67'
•Jan Bamert
67'
Jan Bamert
73'
🔁Furkan Dursunout: Riccardo Braschi
73'
🔁Nico Maierout: Dorian Derbaci
⚽Philippe Paulin Kenyassist: Doron Lichtenstein
77'
🔁Miguel Reichmuthout: Nevio Emanuele Di Giusto
78'
82'
🔁Nassim Zoukitout: Louis Immanuel Passavant
🔁Philippe Paulin Kenyout: Din Ramić
85'
🔁Bledian Krasniqiout: Jill Stiel
85'
🔁Kevin Spadanudaout: Mohamed Bangoura
85'
🔁Leandro Schödlerout: Jorge Segura
87'
90'
⚽Dorian Derbaciassist: Fabio Fehr

Match stats — FC Zurich vs FC Thun

63%Possession37%
13Shots13
5On target5
5Corners6
0.94xG1.46

Goals against chances

FC Zurich4 from 0.94 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Thun2 from 1.46 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Zurich 4-1-4-1
  • 1Silas HuberG
  • 47Doron LichtensteinD
  • 2L. KamberiD
  • 21L. SchodlerD
  • 43N. VolkenD
  • 23V. BerishaM
  • 17K. SpadanudaM
  • 38M. ReichmuthM
  • 7B. KrasniqiM
  • 11U. EmmanuelM
  • 19P. KenyF
Substitutes
  • 18M. BangouraM
  • 8L. ComenenciaM
  • 14N. Di GiustoM
  • 6C. FioriniM
  • 42A. HackD
  • 13H. LindnerG
  • 49D. RamićF
  • 4J. SeguraD
  • 46J. StielM
Coach: M. Koller
FC Thun 4-4-2
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 5N. BürgyD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 18T. StrannegårdD
  • 30N. MaierM
  • 16J. RothM
  • 13N. ZoukitM
  • 52Adam IlicM
  • 80S. LengenF
  • 9F. DursunF
Substitutes
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 54L. PassavantD
  • 2O. MambwaD
  • 37L. DählerD
  • 21D. DerbaciM
  • 26N. ChristofferssonF
  • 20R. BraschiF
  • 17A. BalarubanD
  • 25T. SpycherG
Coach: Gian Luca Privitelli

Form going into FC Zurich vs FC Thun

FC Zurich

Super League

  • D1-1away to FC Sion19 September 2026

FC Thun

Super League

  • W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5FC Zurich136342526-121
8FC Thun134272737-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Zurich vs FC Thun

  • 21 March 2026FC Zurich 2–1 FC ThunSuper League
  • 20 December 2025FC Thun 4–2 FC ZurichSuper League
  • 23 August 2025FC Zurich 0–4 FC ThunSuper League
  • 6 July 2024FC Thun 0–0 FC ZurichFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 August 2020FC Zurich 3–3 FC ThunSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Zurich and FC Thun

FC Zurich

GoalsAssists

  • U. Emmanuel63
  • P. Keny61

FC Thun

GoalsAssists

  • B. Labeau61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Zurich beat FC Thun 4–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Thun at 40% and given a win for FC Zurich 35%. The goals: Simon Lengen 16' for FC Thun, Kevin Spadanuda 30' for FC Zurich, Bledian Krasniqi 37' for FC Zurich, Doron Lichtenstein 64' for FC Zurich, Philippe Paulin Keny 77' for FC Zurich, Dorian Derbaci 90' for FC Thun. Sent off: Jan Bamert (FC Thun) 67'. On expected goals it finished 0.94–1.46.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Zurich a 35.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.3% after a win, 35.6% after a draw, 44.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.3%, 12 points lower than before the match.

For FC Thun the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 19.5% going in: 10.4% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 27.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.0%, 7.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Zurich v FC Thun has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 35% / 25% / 40%: the biggest move is FC Thun's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. FC Zurich win35%=
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. FC Thun win40%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.