FC Zurich
vs
FC Thun
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Zurich 1–2 FC Thun
The model makes it 35% FC Zurich, 27% draw, 38% FC Thun — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Zurich 1.63, FC Thun 1.76.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: FC Zurich and FC Thun are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Zurich vs FC Thun
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Thun at 38% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Zurich vs FC Thun
FC Zurich
- D1-1away to FC Sion19 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Grasshoppers5 September 2026
- L2-4BSC Young Boys1 September 2026
- W3-2away to Lausanne29 August 2026
FC Thun
- W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026
- L2-4Servette FC16 September 2026
- L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
- L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026
- D0-0Lausanne2 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Zurich scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Zurich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for FC Zurich.
- FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Zurich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Zurich vs FC Thun
- 21 March 2026FC Zurich 2–1 FC ThunSuper League
- 20 December 2025FC Thun 4–2 FC ZurichSuper League
- 23 August 2025FC Zurich 0–4 FC ThunSuper League
- 6 July 2024FC Thun 0–0 FC ZurichFriendlies Clubs
- 3 August 2020FC Zurich 3–3 FC ThunSuper League
- 1 July 2020FC Thun 3–2 FC ZurichSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Zurich and FC Thun
FC Zurich
- U. Emmanuel4 goals2 assists
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Zurich carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.46 for FC Thun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for FC Zurich and 1.76 for FC Thun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Zurich rate 0.56 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Thun rate 0.72 and 1.57.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Zurich, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Thun the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for FC Zurich against 1.76 for FC Thun. FC Zurich's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.57 for FC Thun.