Bate Borisov
vs
Slavia Mozyr
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Bate Borisov 1–0 Slavia Mozyr
The model makes it 35% Bate Borisov, 31% draw, 34% Slavia Mozyr — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bate Borisov 1.15, Slavia Mozyr 1.09.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Bate Borisov and Slavia Mozyr are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Bate Borisov are 14th on 18 points from 22 games; Slavia Mozyr are 10th on 25 points from 22 games — Premier League.
- Bate Borisov are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Dinamo Minsk.
- Slavia Mozyr have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Naftan.
- Last 6 meetings: Bate Borisov 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Slavia Mozyr 1–1 Bate Borisov.
All Belarusian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bate Borisov vs Slavia Mozyr
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bate Borisov at 35% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bate Borisov vs Slavia Mozyr
Bate Borisov
- L0-2away to Dinamo Minsk19 September 2026
- D2-2Naftan13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Brest7 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Isloch Minsk R.3 September 2026
- W2-1FC Minsk30 August 2026
Slavia Mozyr
- L0-1Naftan19 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Minsk11 September 2026
- W3-0FC Vitebsk4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Neman29 August 2026
- D0-0FC Gomel22 August 2026
What these results say
- Bate Borisov conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bate Borisov failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Mozyr failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Mozyr failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Slavia Mozyr had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 18 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bate Borisov vs Slavia Mozyr
- 24 May 2026Slavia Mozyr 1–1 Bate BorisovPremier League
- 29 April 2026Bate Borisov 2–0 Slavia MozyrCoppa
- 15 April 2026Slavia Mozyr 0–1 Bate BorisovCoppa
- 9 November 2025Bate Borisov 1–1 Slavia MozyrPremier League
- 20 June 2025Slavia Mozyr 1–1 Bate BorisovPremier League
- 5 October 2024Slavia Mozyr 2–3 Bate BorisovPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bate Borisov carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.16 for Slavia Mozyr. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Bate Borisov and 1.09 for Slavia Mozyr. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bate Borisov rate 0.38 in attack and 1.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Mozyr rate 0.47 and 1.86.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Slavia Mozyr, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bate Borisov the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bate Borisov against 1.09 for Slavia Mozyr. Bate Borisov's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.86 for Slavia Mozyr.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bate Borisov at home · Slavia Mozyr away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bate Borisov 22, Slavia Mozyr 22.
Bate Borisov score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Slavia Mozyr have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bate Borisov
- at FC Dnepr Mogilev17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Belshina24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Arsenal Dzerzhinsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Torpedo Zhodino7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
Slavia Mozyr
- at Belshina17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Torpedo Zhodino24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- at FC Isloch Minsk R.31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Baranovichi7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.