Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Spaeri 3-3 Torpedo Kutaisi.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Spaeri, 26% draw, 46% Torpedo Kutaisi — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Torpedo Kutaisi at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Line-ups
- 1B. PutkaradzeG
- 22N. ChagunavaD
- 3L. KachibaiaD
- 31G. BunturiD
- 14G. SamkharadzeD
- 10Tamaz TsetskhladzeM
- 6T. AskuravaM
- 26B. JibrilF
- 19G. TsirdavaF
- 7S. GegiadzeD
- 17L. KokhreidzeF
- 30Z. BasilashviliF
- 23N. ChomakhidzeG
- 4G. GrigalashviliM
- 25R. InjgiaF
- 20N. KentchadzeD
- 13S. MathenjwaD
- 5T. TsalughelashviliM
- 9G. TsetskhladzeF
- 8S. MaisuradzeD
- 1O. GoshadzeG
- 15L. KupravaD
- 22D. BukiaD
- 4M. ŠimićD
- 20D. SkorupM
- 8M. ItrakM
- 7V. MamuchashviliM
- 11G. ArabidzeM
- 14Felipe PiresF
- 39V. PinsonF
- 9K. AndrićF
- 40A. ShulaiaM
- 19D. PertaiaM
- 5T. NadaraiaD
- 17N. LominadzeM
- 24L. LatsabidzeD
- 38S. KopalianiG
- 13G. KatkovD
- 25G. GergedavaM
- 35D. DeisadzeM
Form going into Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Spaeri
All competitions we cover
- L1-4Dila21 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Iberia 199913 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Meshakhte5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Dinamo Batumi30 August 2026
Torpedo Kutaisi
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Dinamo Batumi20 September 2026
- W3-2Samgurali14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gagra10 September 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Tbilisi6 September 2026
- L0-2Meshakhte31 August 2026
What these results say
- Spaeri did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Spaeri conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spaeri | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 31 |
| 5 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 53 | 44 | +9 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi
- 22 June 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 0–0 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 1 May 2026Spaeri 1–1 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 28 February 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 1–2 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 27 June 2025Spaeri 0–0 Torpedo KutaisiSuper Cup
- 7 September 2023Spaeri 0–2 Torpedo KutaisiDavid Kipiani Cup
Leading scorers: Spaeri and Torpedo Kutaisi
Spaeri
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Torpedo Kutaisi
GoalsAssists
- K. Andrić82
- G. Arabidze58
- Felipe Pires30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spaeri and Torpedo Kutaisi drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Torpedo Kutaisi at 46% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Lasha Kokhreidze 6' for Spaeri, Komnen Andrić 40' for Torpedo Kutaisi, Komnen Andrić 45+1' for Torpedo Kutaisi, Zurab Golubiani 81' for Spaeri, Giorgi Arabidze 90+7' for Torpedo Kutaisi, Gocha tsirdava 90+10' for Spaeri.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Spaeri a 90.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 85.2% after a win, 91.5% after a draw, 94.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 91.5%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
For Torpedo Kutaisi the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.6% going in: 12.3% after a win, 5.7% after a draw, 3.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.7%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Spaeri v Torpedo Kutaisi has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 28% / 26% / 46%: the biggest move is Torpedo Kutaisi's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Spaeri win28%▼ −2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Torpedo Kutaisi win46%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.