Spaeri
vs
Torpedo Kutaisi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Spaeri 1–2 Torpedo Kutaisi
The model makes it 30% Spaeri, 27% draw, 43% Torpedo Kutaisi — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Spaeri 1.33, Torpedo Kutaisi 1.83.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torpedo Kutaisi at 43% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Spaeri
- L1-4Dila21 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Iberia 199913 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Meshakhte5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Dinamo Batumi30 August 2026
Torpedo Kutaisi
- L2-3away to Dinamo Batumi20 September 2026
- W3-2Samgurali14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gagra10 September 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Tbilisi6 September 2026
- L0-2Meshakhte31 August 2026
What these results say
- Spaeri did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Spaeri conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 25 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Spaeri and Torpedo Kutaisi
Spaeri
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Torpedo Kutaisi
- K. Andrić8 goals2 assists
- G. Arabidze5 goals8 assists
- Felipe Pires3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Spaeri carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.28 for Torpedo Kutaisi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Spaeri and 1.83 for Torpedo Kutaisi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spaeri rate 0.46 in attack and 2.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torpedo Kutaisi rate 0.61 and 1.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Spaeri a 0% chance of the title and Torpedo Kutaisi 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Spaeri against 1.83 for Torpedo Kutaisi. Spaeri's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.94 for Torpedo Kutaisi.