10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Servette FC vs FC Sion Super League prediction & result

Geneva
Referee: Fedayi San, Switzerland
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Servette FC 3-0 FC Sion.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Servette FC, 27% draw, 41% FC Sion — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Sion at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Servette FC99%Draw1%FC Sion0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Bradley Mazikou
5'
⚽Houboulang Mendesassist: Pedrinho
11'
⚽Jarell Simoassist: Thomas Lopes
18'
24'
Baltazar Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
29'
🔁Franck Surdezout: Rilind Nivokazi
Houboulang Mendes
32'
Mathis Lambourde
39'
54'
Rilind Nivokazi
59'
🔁Marquinhos Ciprianoout: Nias Hefti
60'
🔁Winsley Boteli Mokangoout: Josias Lukembila
60'
🔁Liam Chipperfieldout: Benjamin Kololli
🔁Houboulang Mendesout: Quentin Maceiras
61'
🔁Pedrinhoout: David Douline
61'
⚽Kingstone Mutandwa (pen)
63'
Quentin Maceiras
69'
71'
🔁Ylyas Chouarefout: Théo Berdayes
🔁Thomas Lopesout: Lilian Njoh
77'
🔁Mathis Lambourdeout: Tiemoko Ouattara
77'
🔁Jarell Simoout: Teo Allix
81'
Teo Allix
90+1'

Match stats — Servette FC vs FC Sion

36%Possession64%
16Shots12
5On target3
5Corners5
1.53xG1.13

Goals against chances

Servette FC3 from 1.53 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Sion0 from 1.13 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Servette FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. GertmonasG
  • 17Houboulang MendesD
  • 4S. RouillerD
  • 15M. BurchD
  • 18B. MazikouD
  • 6Pedro NaressiM
  • 20Jarell Njike SimoM
  • 22M. LambourdeM
  • 36Thomas LopesM
  • 21J. KarlssonM
  • 7K. MutandwaF
Substitutes
  • 77T. OuattaraF
  • 35A. VincentM
  • 34T. AllixD
  • 78L. BessonG
  • 28D. DoulineM
  • 23Q. MaceirasD
  • 90S. MrázF
  • 14L. NjohD
  • 41T. NunezF
Coach: J. Gourvennec
FC Sion 4-3-3
  • 1A. RacioppiG
  • 14N. LavanchyD
  • 5N. SowD
  • 17J. KronigD
  • 6Marquinhos CiprianoD
  • 21L. ChipperfieldM
  • 88A. KabacalmanM
  • 8Baltazar CostaM
  • 7I. ChouarefF
  • 13Winsley Boteli MokangoF
  • 19F. SurdezF
Substitutes
  • 20N. HeftiD
  • 38R. KesslerD
  • 10B. KololliM
  • 22A. LlukesM
  • 9J. LukembilaF
  • 33R. NivokaziF
  • 12F. RubertoG
  • 55L. VillaD
  • 29T. BerdayesF
Coach: D. Tholot

Form going into Servette FC vs FC Sion

Servette FC

Super League

  • L2-3away to BSC Young Boys19 September 2026

FC Sion

Super League

  • D1-1FC Zurich19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Servette FC135261716+117
3FC Sion138232918+1126

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Servette FC vs FC Sion

  • 28 February 2026Servette FC 0–0 FC SionSuper League
  • 31 January 2026Servette FC 3–3 FC SionSuper League
  • 17 September 2025FC Sion 0–2 Servette FCSuper League
  • 13 April 2025FC Sion 1–1 Servette FCSuper League
  • 4 February 2025FC Sion 3–3 Servette FCSuper League

Leading scorers: Servette FC and FC Sion

Servette FC

GoalsAssists

  • K. Mutandwa50

FC Sion

GoalsAssists

  • Winsley Boteli Mokango64
  • R. Nivokazi50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Servette FC beat FC Sion 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Sion at 41% and given a win for Servette FC 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Houboulang Mendes 11' for Servette FC, Jarell Simo 18' for Servette FC, Kingstone Mutandwa (penalty) 63' for Servette FC. On expected goals it finished 1.53–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Servette FC a 14.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.6% after a win, 15.3% after a draw, 18.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.6%, 6.8 points lower than before the match.

For FC Sion the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 8.2% going in: 10.9% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, 4.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.8%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Servette FC v FC Sion has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is FC Sion's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Servette FC win32%=
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. FC Sion win41%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.