Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Ulsan Hyundai FC, 28% draw, 24% Gimcheon Sangmu FC — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Line-ups
- 21Jo Hyeon-WooG
- 26Cho Hyun-TaekD
- 15Jung Seung-HyunD
- 4Seo Myung-GuanD
- 96Choi Seok-HyunD
- 6D. BojanicM
- 10Lee Dong-GyeongM
- 55T. Oude KotteM
- 14Lee Jin-HyunF
- 99Yago CarielloF
- 8H. LeeF
- 16Park Woo-jinM
- 17Kang Sang-WooD
- 19Kim Young-GwonD
- 20Jeong Jae-sangF
- 24Lee Gyu-SeongM
- 31Hwang Byeong-KeunG
- 33Jang Si-YoungF
- 66M. TrojakD
- 91B. MichelF
- 1Baek Jong-beomG
- 11Kim Tae-HwanD
- 45Byeon Jun-SooD
- 26Lee Jung-TaekD
- 3Park Cheol-WooD
- 56K. LeeM
- 55T. ParkM
- 7Go Jae-HyeonM
- 14Park Se-JinM
- 48Hong Yun-SangM
- 9G. LeeF
- 6Lee Soo-BinM
- 8Kim Yi-SeokM
- 10Jeon Byung-KwanM
- 15Lim Dug-KeunD
- 21Kim In-GyunF
- 41M. ParkG
- 42Hong Si-HooD
- 47Lee Sang-HeonF
- 57Jung Jae-MinF
Form going into Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- L1-2away to Daejeon Citizen26 August 2026
- L0-1away to Jeonbuk Motors22 August 2026
- L2-3Gangwon FC16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers8 August 2026
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- D0-0Jeonbuk Motors25 August 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Seoul8 August 2026
What these results say
- Ulsan Hyundai FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Gimcheon Sangmu FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 40 | +5 | 47 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 30 | 5 | 18 | 7 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- Lee Dong-Gyeong7 goals5 assists
- Yago Cariello7 goals1 assist
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Go Jae-Hyeon5 goals3 assists
- Lee Kun-Hee3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.