Ulsan Hyundai FC
vs
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 70% Ulsan Hyundai FC, 15% draw, 15% Gimcheon Sangmu FC — fair odds of 1.43, 6.67 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.09, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.47.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers8 August 2026
- W3-1FC Anyang2 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Seoul26 July 2026
- L1-2Incheon United21 July 2026
- D2-2away to Daejeon Citizen18 July 2026
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- D0-0FC Seoul8 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pohang Steelers1 August 2026
- W3-2Daejeon Citizen25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Gwangju FC22 July 2026
- L0-2away to Gangwon FC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 37 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 22 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- Yago Cariello4 goals
- Lee Dong-Gyeong3 goals2 assists
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Go Jae-Hyeon3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.45 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Ulsan Hyundai FC D-L-W-W-W; Gimcheon Sangmu FC L-D-W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.09 goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.47 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 1.16 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimcheon Sangmu FC rate 0.63 and 1.41.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (6%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 2.4% chance of the title and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.09 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.47 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.41 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC.