Chengdu Better City vs Shanghai Shenhua Super League prediction & result
Final score: Chengdu Better City 4-5 Shanghai Shenhua.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Chengdu Better City, 23% draw, 15% Shanghai Shenhua — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Chengdu Better City at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 9 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chengdu Better City vs Shanghai Shenhua
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32Liu DianzuoG
- 4He YiranD
- 18Han PengfeiD
- 28E. SorokinD
- 2H. HuD
- 16Yang Ming-YangM
- 5Matheus JussaM
- 11Wellington SilvaM
- 20Wang ZimingM
- 7Wei ShihaoM
- 9Felipe SilvaF
- 1Jian TaoG
- 19Y. DongD
- 22Y. LiD
- 3A. C. JojoD
- 17Wang DongshengD
- 25Muzepper MurahmetjanM
- 23Liao LishengM
- 10RomuloM
- 39Gan ChaoM
- 1Xue QinghaoG
- 13W. ManafaD
- 6Li SongyiD
- 5Zhu ChenjieD
- 27Chan ShinichiD
- 19L. AsueM
- 17Gao TianyiM
- 15Wu XiM
- 21Xu HaoyangM
- 9Rafael RataoF
- 10J. TeixeiraF
- 24Ma ZhenG
- 39D. SunG
- 16Yang ZexiangD
- 26Yang ShuaiD
- 25Zhu YueD
- 2Wang ShilongD
- 3Jin ShunkaiD
- 38Wu QipengD
- 30Xie PengfeiM
Form going into Chengdu Better City vs Shanghai Shenhua
Chengdu Better City
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Hangzhou Greentown15 August 2026
- L0-1away to Yunnan Yukun8 August 2026
Shanghai Shenhua
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Beijing Guoan18 August 2026
- W4-1Henan Jianye15 August 2026
- W1-0away to Qingdao Jonoon8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Chengdu Better City | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 53 | 38 | +15 | 52 |
| 7 | Shanghai Shenhua | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 67 | 50 | +17 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chengdu Better City vs Shanghai Shenhua
- 1 May 2026Shanghai Shenhua 2–3 Chengdu Better CitySuper League
- 21 September 2025Shanghai Shenhua 1–1 Chengdu Better CitySuper League
- 2 May 2025Chengdu Better City 1–0 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
- 2 November 2024Chengdu Better City 1–2 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
- 16 June 2024Shanghai Shenhua 1–1 Chengdu Better CitySuper League
- 26 August 2023Shanghai Shenhua 1–1 Chengdu Better CitySuper League
Leading scorers: Chengdu Better City and Shanghai Shenhua
Chengdu Better City
GoalsAssists
- Felipe183
- Wellington Silva106
Shanghai Shenhua
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Ratão191
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Shanghai Shenhua won 5–4 at Chengdu Better City. The model had leaned towards a win for Chengdu Better City at 62% and given a win for Shanghai Shenhua 15%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: He Yiran 2' for Chengdu Better City, L. Asue 21' for Shanghai Shenhua, Wellington Silva 35' for Chengdu Better City, L. Asue 51' for Shanghai Shenhua, Rafael Ratao 53' for Shanghai Shenhua, L. Asue 67' for Shanghai Shenhua, Xie Pengfei 74' for Shanghai Shenhua, Felipe Silva (penalty) 82' for Chengdu Better City, Felipe Silva (penalty) 90' for Chengdu Better City. On expected goals it finished 2.57–1.40.