Chengdu Better City
vs
Shanghai Shenhua
Super League prediction
The model makes it 51% Chengdu Better City, 25% draw, 24% Shanghai Shenhua — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chengdu Better City 1.72, Shanghai Shenhua 1.13.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Chengdu Better City
- L0-1away to Yunnan Yukun8 August 2026
- D1-1Wuhan Three Towns1 August 2026
- D2-2Beijing Guoan26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Qingdao Youth Island17 July 2026
- D1-1Chongqing Tongliang Long11 July 2026
Shanghai Shenhua
- W1-0away to Qingdao Jonoon8 August 2026
- L1-3away to Shenyang Urban2 August 2026
- L0-2away to SHANGHAI SIPG25 July 2026
- L0-2Tianjin Teda18 July 2026
- W3-2Hangzhou Greentown5 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 22 | +20 | 45 |
| 13 | Shanghai Shenhua | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 34 | +4 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Chengdu Better City
- Felipe12 goals3 assists
Shanghai Shenhua
- Rafael Ratão13 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chengdu Better City carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.28 for Shanghai Shenhua. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Chengdu Better City D-D-D-D-L; Shanghai Shenhua W-L-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.13 for Shanghai Shenhua. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chengdu Better City rate 0.57 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shanghai Shenhua rate 0.51 and 1.60.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chengdu Better City a 99.7% chance of the title and Shanghai Shenhua 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chengdu Better City the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Chengdu Better City against 1.13 for Shanghai Shenhua. Chengdu Better City's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.6 for Shanghai Shenhua.