Jeonbuk Motors
vs
Ulsan Hyundai FC
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 32% Jeonbuk Motors, 27% draw, 41% Ulsan Hyundai FC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Jeonbuk Motors 1.23, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.41.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Jeonbuk Motors
- L1-3Jeju United FC8 August 2026
- D0-0FC Seoul1 August 2026
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers25 July 2026
- D0-0Daejeon Citizen21 July 2026
- L0-1away to Incheon United18 July 2026
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers8 August 2026
- W3-1FC Anyang2 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Seoul26 July 2026
- L1-2Incheon United21 July 2026
- D2-2away to Daejeon Citizen18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 34 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Jeonbuk Motors
- Lee Seung-Woo3 goals2 assists
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- Yago Cariello4 goals
- Lee Dong-Gyeong3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jeonbuk Motors carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.72 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Jeonbuk Motors L-D-W-D-L; Ulsan Hyundai FC D-L-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.41 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jeonbuk Motors rate 0.39 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 1.16 and 1.67.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jeonbuk Motors a 1.1% chance of the title and Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors against 1.41 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Jeonbuk Motors's attack/defence rating is 0.39/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/1.67 for Ulsan Hyundai FC.