Wuhan Three Towns
vs
Tianjin Teda
Super League prediction
The model makes it 53% Wuhan Three Towns, 26% draw, 21% Tianjin Teda — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wuhan Three Towns 1.66, Tianjin Teda 0.97.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Wuhan Three Towns
- D1-1away to Chengdu Better City1 August 2026
- W1-0Chongqing Tongliang Long25 July 2026
- W2-0Sichuan Jiuniu18 July 2026
- L2-3away to Dalian Zhixing4 July 2026
- L0-1away to Beijing Guoan27 June 2026
Tianjin Teda
- L1-2away to Shandong Luneng9 August 2026
- W3-2Yunnan Yukun1 August 2026
- W2-0away to Qingdao Jonoon25 July 2026
- W2-0away to Shanghai Shenhua18 July 2026
- W3-0Sichuan Jiuniu4 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 15 |
| 14 | Tianjin Teda | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Wuhan Three Towns
- J. Cádiz13 goals6 assists
Tianjin Teda
- Alberto Quiles9 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wuhan Three Towns carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.31 for Tianjin Teda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Wuhan Three Towns L-L-W-W-D; Tianjin Teda W-W-W-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.97 for Tianjin Teda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wuhan Three Towns rate 0.57 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tianjin Teda rate 0.52 and 1.54.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tianjin Teda, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wuhan Three Towns the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns against 0.97 for Tianjin Teda. Wuhan Three Towns's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.54 for Tianjin Teda.