Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown Super League prediction & result
Final score: Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Before kick-off the model made it 88% Sichuan Jiuniu, 7% draw, 5% Hangzhou Greentown — fair odds of 1.14, 14.29 and 20.00.
Most likely scoreline: 4-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sichuan Jiuniu at 88%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Peng PengG
- 16Tang MiaoD
- 15Yu RuiD
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 20Z. XuanD
- 2Tian YifanM
- 8T. ChowM
- 19Zhang YufengM
- 11A. AdemiM
- 10Dai Wai-TsunF
- 7Wesley MoraesF
- 35Wei MinzheG
- 1J. JiG
- 25Zhao JianfeiD
- 56Wang YuhengM
- 6Yao JunshengM
- 14Li LongM
- 17Li NingM
- 39Yu MenghuiM
- 29Xia DalongF
- 33Zhao BoG
- 25Xu JunchiD
- 38A. ZhangD
- 5Liu HaofanD
- 26Sun GuowenD
- 22Cheng JinM
- 4Park Jin-SeobM
- 7Tao QianglongM
- 11Y. WangM
- 28A. MitritaM
- 27Felippe CardosoF
- 1Dong ChunyuG
- 3Wang YangD
- 16Tong LeiD
- 17Wang ShiqinD
- 47Y. WangD
- 8A. N'DoumbouM
- 29Zhang JiaqiM
- 14Wu WeiM
- 6Bao ShengxinM
Form going into Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown
Sichuan Jiuniu
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Shenyang Urban15 August 2026
- L0-4away to Beijing Guoan7 August 2026
Hangzhou Greentown
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Chengdu Better City15 August 2026
- W4-1Wuhan Three Towns8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 41 | 53 | -12 | 33 |
| 9 | Hangzhou Greentown | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 55 | 54 | +1 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown
- 2 May 2026Hangzhou Greentown 2–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 3 August 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 2–4 Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
- 1 April 2025Hangzhou Greentown 3–0 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 25 June 2024Sichuan Jiuniu 3–2 Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
- 3 March 2024Hangzhou Greentown 1–0 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 22 June 2023Sichuan Jiuniu 1–4 Hangzhou GreentownFA Cup
Leading scorers: Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown
Sichuan Jiuniu
GoalsAssists
- Wesley Moraes145
Hangzhou Greentown
GoalsAssists
- A. Mitriță1315
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sichuan Jiuniu at 88% and given a draw 7%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 14 matches like this one. The goals: Xia Dalong 58' for Sichuan Jiuniu, Felippe Cardoso 83' for Hangzhou Greentown. On expected goals it finished 1.76–1.26.