Sichuan Jiuniu
vs
Hangzhou Greentown
Super League prediction
The model makes it 72% Sichuan Jiuniu, 14% draw, 14% Hangzhou Greentown — fair odds of 1.39, 7.14 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.33, Hangzhou Greentown 1.51.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%, under 2.5: 14%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sichuan Jiuniu
- L0-4away to Beijing Guoan7 August 2026
- W2-0Chongqing Tongliang Long2 August 2026
- L3-4away to Yunnan Yukun26 July 2026
- L0-2away to Wuhan Three Towns18 July 2026
- W3-0Qingdao Youth Island11 July 2026
Hangzhou Greentown
- L1-2away to Beijing Guoan1 August 2026
- W3-2Dalian Zhixing26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long18 July 2026
- W3-2Qingdao Jonoon14 July 2026
- L2-3away to Shanghai Shenhua5 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 23 |
| 8 | Hangzhou Greentown | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Sichuan Jiuniu
- Wesley Moraes10 goals4 assists
Hangzhou Greentown
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sichuan Jiuniu carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.1 for Hangzhou Greentown. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sichuan Jiuniu W-L-L-W-L; Hangzhou Greentown L-W-D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.33 goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.51 for Hangzhou Greentown. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sichuan Jiuniu rate 0.66 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hangzhou Greentown rate 0.57 and 2.67.
That points to 86% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hangzhou Greentown, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sichuan Jiuniu the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.33 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.51 for Hangzhou Greentown. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.67 for Hangzhou Greentown.