Beijing Guoan
vs
Yunnan Yukun
Super League prediction
The model makes it 74% Beijing Guoan, 15% draw, 11% Yunnan Yukun — fair odds of 1.35, 6.67 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Beijing Guoan 2.94, Yunnan Yukun 1.09.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Beijing Guoan
- W4-0Sichuan Jiuniu7 August 2026
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chengdu Better City26 July 2026
- D1-1Shenyang Urban17 July 2026
- W2-0Shandong Luneng4 July 2026
Yunnan Yukun
- W1-0Chengdu Better City8 August 2026
- L2-3away to Tianjin Teda1 August 2026
- W4-3Sichuan Jiuniu26 July 2026
- D2-2SHANGHAI SIPG17 July 2026
- L3-4away to Shandong Luneng10 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Beijing Guoan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Beijing Guoan
- Zhang Yuning10 goals5 assists
Yunnan Yukun
- O. Maritu16 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Beijing Guoan carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.35 for Yunnan Yukun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Beijing Guoan W-D-D-W-W; Yunnan Yukun L-D-W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.94 goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.09 for Yunnan Yukun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beijing Guoan rate 0.84 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Yunnan Yukun rate 0.67 and 1.85.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Yunnan Yukun, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Beijing Guoan a 0.1% chance of the title and Yunnan Yukun 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Beijing Guoan against 1.09 for Yunnan Yukun. Beijing Guoan's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.85 for Yunnan Yukun.