Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun Super League prediction & result
Final score: Beijing Guoan 3-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Beijing Guoan, 21% draw, 18% Yunnan Yukun — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Beijing Guoan at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34Hou SenG
- 27Wang GangD
- 24Abdugheni AbduhamitD
- 5G. RamosD
- 26Bai YangD
- 37Cao YongjingM
- 23DawhanM
- 7SerginhoM
- 47Deng JiefuM
- 29F. AbreuF
- 9Zhang YuningF
- 31S. LiuG
- 4Li LeiD
- 21Yue Tze-NamD
- 30Fan ShuangjieD
- 10Zhang XizheM
- 18Wang YuM
- 36Jia FeifanM
- 41Cheng XiM
- 50H. ZhangM
- 23Wang ZhifengG
- 26Zhang ChenliangD
- 18Yi TengD
- 33A. BurcaD
- 3Tsui Wang-KitD
- 10A. Ionita IIM
- 8Xu XinM
- 7Ye ChuguiM
- 39Abdusalam BunyaminF
- 30J. Saeter
- 11O. Taty MarituF
- 1Bao YaxiongG
- 13Qiu ShengjunG
- 27Han ZilongM
- 2Hu RuibaoD
- 16Zhang XiangshuoD
- 6Zhao YuhaoM
- 17Sun XuelongM
- 34Caio ViniciusD
- 22Duan LiuyuM
Form going into Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun
Beijing Guoan
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Shanghai Shenhua18 August 2026
- W4-2away to Tianjin Teda15 August 2026
- W4-0Sichuan Jiuniu7 August 2026
Yunnan Yukun
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Dalian Zhixing15 August 2026
- W1-0Chengdu Better City8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 58 | 36 | +22 | 50 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun
- 2 May 2026Yunnan Yukun 3–3 Beijing GuoanSuper League
- 20 August 2025Beijing Guoan 7–0 Yunnan YukunFA Cup
- 30 June 2025Beijing Guoan 2–1 Yunnan YukunSuper League
- 22 February 2025Yunnan Yukun 0–2 Beijing GuoanSuper League
Leading scorers: Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun
Beijing Guoan
GoalsAssists
- Zhang Yuning157
- Fábio Abreu116
Yunnan Yukun
GoalsAssists
- O. Maritu239
- Cléber145
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Beijing Guoan at 61% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Dawhan 36' for Beijing Guoan, Zhang Yuning 50' for Beijing Guoan, Abdusalam Bunyamin 58' for Yunnan Yukun, O. Taty Maritu 65' for Yunnan Yukun, Serginho 69' for Beijing Guoan, A. Ionita II 90' for Yunnan Yukun. On expected goals it finished 2.69–1.45.