Pohang Steelers
vs
Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 24% Pohang Steelers, 21% draw, 55% Bucheon FC 1995 — fair odds of 4.17, 4.76 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Pohang Steelers 1.37, Bucheon FC 1995 2.17.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Pohang Steelers
- L0-2Ulsan Hyundai FC8 August 2026
- L0-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC1 August 2026
- L0-2Jeonbuk Motors25 July 2026
- L1-3away to FC Seoul22 July 2026
- L1-2away to Jeju United FC18 July 2026
Bucheon FC 1995
- D0-0Gwangju FC8 August 2026
- W3-0away to Gangwon FC1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United26 July 2026
- L2-3FC Anyang22 July 2026
- L1-3FC Seoul19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pohang Steelers | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Pohang Steelers
- Lee Ho-Jae4 goals
Bucheon FC 1995
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Pohang Steelers carry a model rating of 6.03 against 6.41 for Bucheon FC 1995. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Pohang Steelers L-L-L-L-L; Bucheon FC 1995 L-L-D-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Pohang Steelers and 2.17 for Bucheon FC 1995. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pohang Steelers rate 0.43 in attack and 2.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bucheon FC 1995 rate 0.70 and 1.69.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pohang Steelers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucheon FC 1995 the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Pohang Steelers against 2.17 for Bucheon FC 1995. Pohang Steelers's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.69 for Bucheon FC 1995.