Charlton
vs
Derby
Championship prediction
The model makes it 47% Charlton, 26% draw, 27% Derby — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Charlton 1.62, Derby 1.19.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Derby
- 20 January 2026Charlton 1–2 DerbyChampionship
- 30 September 2025Derby 1–1 CharltonChampionship
- 27 February 2024Derby 1–2 CharltonLeague One
- 3 February 2024Charlton 0–1 DerbyLeague One
- 18 February 2023Derby 2–0 CharltonLeague One
- 6 August 2022Charlton 1–0 DerbyLeague One
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Charlton carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.89 for Derby. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Charlton and 1.19 for Derby. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charlton rate 0.84 in attack and 0.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Derby rate 1.10 and 1.02.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charlton the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Charlton against 1.19 for Derby. Charlton's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.02 for Derby.