Charlton vs Derby Championship prediction & result
Final score: Charlton 2-1 Derby.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Charlton, 26% draw, 27% Derby — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Charlton at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Charlton vs Derby
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25William MannionG
- 20Danny McNamaraD
- 5Lloyd JonesD
- 12Billy KoumetioD
- 17Amari'i BellD
- 6Conor CoventryM
- 15Nathaniel ChalobahM
- 7Tyreece CampbellM
- 14Sonny CareyM
- 9Karlan GrantM
- 24Matt GoddenF
- 19Millenic AlliF
- 11Miles LeaburnF
- 26Joe Rankin-CostelloM
- 18Ivan MesíkD
- 28Collins SichenjeD
- 21Tiernan BrooksG
- 32Alan NwambaD
- 8Harvey KnibbsM
- 30Robert ApterM
- 1Jacob Widell ZetterströmG
- 23Joe WardD
- 6Sondre LangåsD
- 28Dion SandersonD
- 3Craig ForsythD
- 18Charlie TaylorD
- 29Oscar FrauloM
- 27Lewis TravisM
- 8Bobby ClarkM
- 9Carlton MorrisF
- 11Sammie SzmodicsF
- 20Alex MowattM
- 33Corey Blackett-TaylorF
- 10Rhian BrewsterF
- 22Max JohnstonD
- 15Lars-Jørgen SalvesenF
- 31Josh VickersG
- 24Ryan NyambeD
- 37Owen EamesM
- 13Filip BilbijaM
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 17 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Derby
- 20 January 2026Charlton 1–2 DerbyChampionship
- 30 September 2025Derby 1–1 CharltonChampionship
- 27 February 2024Derby 1–2 CharltonLeague One
- 3 February 2024Charlton 0–1 DerbyLeague One
- 18 February 2023Derby 2–0 CharltonLeague One
The result against the call
Charlton beat Derby 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Charlton at 47%. The goals: S. Szmodics 23' for Derby, L. Jones 61' for Charlton, T. Campbell 80' for Charlton. On expected goals it finished 1.07–1.01.